WSG Wattens 1-1 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates WSG Wattens at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this WSG Wattens vs Ried encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
WSG Wattens and Ried meet at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ried (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 5L across 9 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for WSG Wattens, 1.60 for Ried — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across 7 previous meetings, WSG Wattens are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Ried winning.
The historical record gives WSG Wattens a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Ried goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 63% versus Ried 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 47% | Ried 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.52 xG and Ried 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.980 / defence 1.035 | Ried attack 0.869 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.110. Data: 41 WSG Wattens games / 19 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 49% | Draw 26% | Ried 25%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Ried 4.00. WSG Wattens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, WSG Wattens are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: WSG Wattens 70% | Ried 56% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 49% | Draw 26% | Ried 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG WSG Wattens 1.52 / Ried 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.980 / def 1.035 | Ried attack 0.869 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Ried xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Ried kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Ried kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Ried?
WSG Wattens 1 - 1 Ried.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Ried part of?
WSG Wattens vs Ried is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 49% chance of winning, Ried a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both WSG Wattens and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Ried?
Record (7 meetings): WSG Wattens 4W | Draws 2 | Ried 1W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Ried in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Ried (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
WSG Wattens's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Ried's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Ried's attack (0.87x) against WSG Wattens's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 41/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
49%
2.02
26%
3.88
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.52
1.00
Ried xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
5%
18.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.00 for Ried, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
WSG Wattens's recent record stands at 6W 6D 7L from 19 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 8W 3D 8L across 19 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for WSG Wattens against 1.42 for Ried. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, WSG Wattens have managed 4W 2D 3L from 9 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ried's away record stands at 4W 0D 5L across 9 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.26 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: WSG Wattens have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Ried in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 6W 6D 7L in their last 19 games (1.26 PPG), while Ried have gone 8W 3D 8L in their last 19 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Ried away?
WSG Wattens's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.56 PPG; Ried away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ried — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
WSG Wattens
3
Draws
2
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Ried?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 5, Ried have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when WSG Wattens 1-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Ried?
WSG Wattens have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 67%, Ried 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (WSG Wattens) and 56% (Ried). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ried in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of WSG Wattens's games and 56% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of WSG Wattens's matches and 56% of Ried's.
Do WSG Wattens and Ried tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Ried in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
WSG Wattens and Ried share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 20, as WSG Wattens and Ried drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.52 xG and Ried 1.00 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.98 / defence 1.03 against Ried attack 0.87 / defence 1.16, drawn from 41/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 49% | Draw 26% | Ried 25%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 47%, Ried 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Ried's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.26 PPG, Ried 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.