SCR Altach 2-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Austria Vienna (37%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as SCR Altach face Austria Vienna.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Austria Vienna travel to Cashpoint-Arena to take on SCR Altach in Bundesliga (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SCR Altach stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
SCR Altach at home: 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Austria Vienna have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Austria Vienna have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Austria Vienna — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Austria Vienna have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 1 for SCR Altach.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2025, ended SCR Altach 0–1 Austria Vienna — a Austria Vienna win.
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
SCR Altach trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Austria Vienna trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 45% versus Austria Vienna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 39% | Austria Vienna 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.22 xG and Austria Vienna 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.972 / defence 0.879 | Austria Vienna attack 1.242 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.160. Austria Vienna have an above-average attack rating of 1.242, which lifts their away xG to 1.27. Data: built from SCR Altach's last 41 games and Austria Vienna's last 41.
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 35% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 37%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.84 | Draw 3.63 | Austria Vienna 2.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SCR Altach 50% (last 10 home games) | Austria Vienna 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 20 | Venue: Cashpoint-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 35% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG SCR Altach 1.22 / Austria Vienna 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.972 / def 0.879 | Austria Vienna attack 1.242 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Austria Vienna xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna FAQs
What time does SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna kick off?
SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Cashpoint-Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
SCR Altach 2 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Cashpoint-Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna part of?
SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 20) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 35% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SCR Altach and Austria Vienna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SCR Altach's attack rating (0.97) and Austria Vienna's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SCR Altach's last 41 games and Austria Vienna's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
35%
2.84
28%
3.63
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.49
1.27
Austria Vienna xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
10%
10.08
11%
9.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.5 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.27 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach come into this having played 51 games, going 11W 18D 22L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.80 PPG from 51 outings (28W 8D 15L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Austria Vienna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SCR Altach's home form reads 6W 12D 7L across their last 25 home games, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.72 points per game from their last 25 away games (13W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.49 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
SCR Altach (Home) vs Austria Vienna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SCR Altach
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna Form FAQs
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 11W 18D 22L in their last 51 games (1.00 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 28W 8D 15L in their last 51 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.20 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
SCR Altach have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Dec 2024, when Austria Vienna won Austria Vienna 3-0 SCR Altach.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
3
Draws
4
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SCR Altach have won 3, Austria Vienna have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Austria Vienna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: SCR Altach 2-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 56%, Austria Vienna 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (SCR Altach) and 48% (Austria Vienna).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SCR Altach and Austria Vienna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of SCR Altach's games and 56% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of SCR Altach's recent games and 48% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Austria Vienna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 68% of Austria Vienna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SCR Altach defy the odds to beat Austria Vienna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat Austria Vienna 2-1 at Cashpoint-Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.22 xG and Austria Vienna 1.27 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.97 / defence 0.88 against Austria Vienna attack 1.24 / defence 0.95, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 35% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 37%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual SCR Altach win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 39%, Austria Vienna 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with SCR Altach winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.