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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

SCR Altach host Rapid Vienna at Cashpoint-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

SCR Altach — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 5W 4D 1L at Cashpoint-Arena — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Rapid Vienna have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — SCR Altach at 1.50 PPG versus Rapid Vienna's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SCR Altach register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rapid Vienna in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Rapid Vienna have the better historical record — 7 wins from 9 previous contests against 1 for SCR Altach.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Rapid Vienna have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

SCR Altach in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Rapid Vienna in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 46% versus Rapid Vienna 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 40% | Rapid Vienna 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.43 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 1.042 / defence 0.857 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.847 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.169. Data: 42 SCR Altach games / 42 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 51% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 22%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Rapid Vienna 4.55. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SCR Altach at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: SCR Altach 60% | Rapid Vienna 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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