SCR Altach 1-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SCR Altach host Rapid Vienna at Cashpoint-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SCR Altach — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 5W 4D 1L at Cashpoint-Arena — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Rapid Vienna have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SCR Altach at 1.50 PPG versus Rapid Vienna's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SCR Altach register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rapid Vienna in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Rapid Vienna have the better historical record — 7 wins from 8 previous contests against 0 for SCR Altach.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Rapid Vienna have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Rapid Vienna in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 46% versus Rapid Vienna 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 40% | Rapid Vienna 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.43 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 1.042 / defence 0.857 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.847 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.169. Data: 42 SCR Altach games / 42 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 51% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 22%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Rapid Vienna 4.55. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SCR Altach at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: SCR Altach 60% | Rapid Vienna 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Cashpoint-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 51% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG SCR Altach 1.43 / Rapid Vienna 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 1.042 / def 0.857 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.847 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Rapid Vienna xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Cashpoint-Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna?
SCR Altach 1 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Cashpoint-Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna part of?
SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 51% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna?
Record (8 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 1 | Rapid Vienna 7W.
What form are SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SCR Altach's attack rating (1.04) and Rapid Vienna's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
51%
1.97
27%
3.71
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.28
0.85
Rapid Vienna xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
5%
18.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.4 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for SCR Altach and 0.85 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach come into this having played 52 games, going 12W 18D 22L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rapid Vienna sit at 1.38 PPG from 52 outings (20W 12D 20L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SCR Altach on 1.04 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SCR Altach's home form reads 7W 12D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Rapid Vienna have taken 1.00 points per game from 26 outings (6W 8D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.33 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 12W 18D 22L in their last 52 games (1.04 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 20W 12D 20L in their last 52 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Rapid Vienna away?
SCR Altach's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.27 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2025, when Rapid Vienna won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SCR Altach
2
Draws
8
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 0, Rapid Vienna have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Rapid Vienna 1-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 58%, Rapid Vienna 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (SCR Altach) and 54% (Rapid Vienna).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of SCR Altach's games and 69% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of SCR Altach's recent games and 54% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna finished level at 1-1 at Cashpoint-Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.43 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.85 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 1.04 / defence 0.86 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 51% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 22%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 40%, Rapid Vienna 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 1.04 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.