Lask Linz 1-0 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lask Linz (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Lask Linz face WSG Wattens.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Raiffeisen Arena plays host to Lask Linz versus WSG Wattens in Bundesliga (matchday 18). Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Lask Linz (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Lask Linz at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
WSG Wattens's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Lask Linz. A 1.10 PPG lead over WSG Wattens (2.30 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Lask Linz have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins, with WSG Wattens managing 1 and 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2025, ended Lask Linz 1–3 WSG Wattens — a WSG Wattens win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Lask Linz and goals — 6 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
Lask Linz half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
WSG Wattens half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 51% versus WSG Wattens 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 57% | WSG Wattens 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.51 xG and WSG Wattens 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.107 / defence 0.875 | WSG Wattens attack 0.956 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.352. Data: built from Lask Linz's last 39 games and WSG Wattens's last 39.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 46% | Draw 26% | WSG Wattens 28%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.18 | Draw 3.87 | WSG Wattens 3.53. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lask Linz 40% (last 10 home games) | WSG Wattens 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 18 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 46% | Draw 26% | WSG Wattens 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Lask Linz 1.51 / WSG Wattens 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.107 / def 0.875 | WSG Wattens attack 0.956 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.13
WSG Wattens xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens FAQs
What time does Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Lask Linz 1 - 0 WSG Wattens.
Where is Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens part of?
Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 18) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 46% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lask Linz and WSG Wattens will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lask Linz's attack rating (1.11) and WSG Wattens's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (0.96x) against Lask Linz's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from Lask Linz's last 39 games and WSG Wattens's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
46%
2.18
26%
3.87
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.64
1.13
WSG Wattens xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
6%
15.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.13 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lask Linz come into this having played 49 games, going 26W 8D 15L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, WSG Wattens sit at 1.04 PPG from 49 outings (12W 15D 22L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Lask Linz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Lask Linz's home form reads 14W 5D 5L across their last 24 home games, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, WSG Wattens have taken 0.88 points per game from their last 24 away games (5W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lask Linz are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.20 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
Lask Linz (Home) vs WSG Wattens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lask Linz
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens Form FAQs
What form are Lask Linz and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 26W 8D 15L in their last 49 games (1.76 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 12W 15D 22L in their last 49 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or WSG Wattens away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.96 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or WSG Wattens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, WSG Wattens in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Lask Linz and WSG Wattens, the earliest from March 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Lask Linz have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Lask Linz
1
Draws
1
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and WSG Wattens?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lask Linz have won 8, WSG Wattens have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and WSG Wattens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Lask Linz 2-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and WSG Wattens?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 83% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 46%, WSG Wattens 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lask Linz) and 58% (WSG Wattens). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; WSG Wattens in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lask Linz and WSG Wattens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 58% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lask Linz and WSG Wattens matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Lask Linz's matches and 58% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Lask Linz and WSG Wattens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 67% of WSG Wattens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lask Linz edge out WSG Wattens 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat WSG Wattens 1-0 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.51 xG and WSG Wattens 1.13 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. WSG Wattens landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.11 / defence 0.88 against WSG Wattens attack 0.96 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 46% | Draw 26% | WSG Wattens 28%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 57%, WSG Wattens 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Lask Linz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.