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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Hartberg plays host to TSV Hartberg versus WSG Wattens in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 13 December 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

TSV Hartberg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion Hartberg — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.

WSG Wattens's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for TSV Hartberg, 1.20 for WSG Wattens — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, WSG Wattens in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Across 9 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 2 draws in between.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 2–4 with WSG Wattens winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both TSV Hartberg and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 54% versus WSG Wattens 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 48% | WSG Wattens 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.29 xG and WSG Wattens 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.002 / defence 0.892 | WSG Wattens attack 0.940 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.384. Data: 38 TSV Hartberg games / 38 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 39% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 33%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | WSG Wattens 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: TSV Hartberg 60% | WSG Wattens 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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