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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Grazer AK travel to Lavanttal-Arena to take on Wolfsberger AC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026, 13:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Wolfsberger AC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Wolfsberger AC's home record at Lavanttal-Arena: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Grazer AK — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Grazer AK away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wolfsberger AC 1.30 PPG, Grazer AK 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Wolfsberger AC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Grazer AK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

Wolfsberger AC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Grazer AK, with 0 draws in between.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 3–1 with Wolfsberger AC winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Wolfsberger AC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 5.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Profile

Wolfsberger AC in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Grazer AK in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 63% and Grazer AK 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 61% | Grazer AK 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.51 xG and Grazer AK 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.994 / defence 0.927 | Grazer AK attack 0.833 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.313. Data: 39 Wolfsberger AC games / 39 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 49% | Draw 26% | Grazer AK 25%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Grazer AK 4.00. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 5.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Wolfsberger AC 60% | Grazer AK 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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