Wolfsberger AC 2-2 Grazer AK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Grazer AK travel to Lavanttal-Arena to take on Wolfsberger AC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Wolfsberger AC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's home record at Lavanttal-Arena: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Grazer AK — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grazer AK away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wolfsberger AC 1.30 PPG, Grazer AK 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Wolfsberger AC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Grazer AK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Wolfsberger AC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Grazer AK, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 3–1 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Wolfsberger AC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 5.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Wolfsberger AC in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Grazer AK in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 63% and Grazer AK 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 61% | Grazer AK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.51 xG and Grazer AK 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.994 / defence 0.927 | Grazer AK attack 0.833 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.313. Data: 39 Wolfsberger AC games / 39 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 49% | Draw 26% | Grazer AK 25%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Grazer AK 4.00. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 5.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Wolfsberger AC 60% | Grazer AK 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Lavanttal-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 49% | Draw 26% | Grazer AK 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.51 / Grazer AK 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.994 / def 0.927 | Grazer AK attack 0.833 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Grazer AK xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Lavanttal-Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK?
Wolfsberger AC 2 - 2 Grazer AK.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal-Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 49% chance of winning, Grazer AK a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK?
Record (3 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 3W | Draws 0 | Grazer AK 0W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Grazer AK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 0.99x the league average against Grazer AK's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Grazer AK's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.86
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.53
1.01
Grazer AK xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
6%
17.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.01 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wolfsberger AC come into this having played 49 games, going 23W 10D 16L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Grazer AK sit at 0.88 PPG from 49 outings (8W 19D 22L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Grazer AK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Wolfsberger AC's home form reads 11W 4D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Grazer AK have taken 0.75 points per game from 24 outings (3W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Grazer AK are on 1.04 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Grazer AK in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Grazer AK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 23W 10D 16L in their last 49 games (1.61 PPG), while Grazer AK have gone 8W 19D 22L in their last 49 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Grazer AK away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.54 PPG; Grazer AK away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting Grazer AK specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
2
Draws
1
Grazer AK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK?
From 7 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, Grazer AK have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Grazer AK 0-0 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 62%, Grazer AK 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Wolfsberger AC and 58% for Grazer AK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Grazer AK in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Grazer AK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Grazer AK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 62% of Grazer AK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 58% of Grazer AK's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Grazer AK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK finished level at 2-2 at Lavanttal-Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.51 xG and Grazer AK 1.01 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Grazer AK outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 0.99 / defence 0.93 against Grazer AK attack 0.83 / defence 1.12, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 49% | Draw 26% | Grazer AK 25%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 61%, Grazer AK 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Grazer AK's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grazer AK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.