Grazer AK 2-1 Ried – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Grazer AK at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Grazer AK face Ried.

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Full Analysis

Merkur-Arena plays host to Grazer AK versus Ried in Bundesliga (matchday 21). Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Grazer AK have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Grazer AK have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Ried (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Ried have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Grazer AK, 1.40 for Ried — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Grazer AK's last 10 home games and Ried's last 10 away games) — Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Ried in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Grazer AK, 0 for Ried and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Grazer AK 0–0 Ried — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (last 20 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Ried half-time and goal-timing data (last 20 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 65% versus Ried 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 60% | Ried 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.52 xG and Ried 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 1.028 / defence 1.035 | Ried attack 0.857 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.169. Data: built from Grazer AK's last 42 games and Ried's last 20.

Result probabilities: Grazer AK 49% | Draw 26% | Ried 26%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.06 | Draw 3.89 | Ried 3.88. Grazer AK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Grazer AK are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grazer AK if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Grazer AK 80% (last 10 home games) | Ried 60% (last 10 away games).

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