Red Bull Salzburg 0-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Red Bull Arena to take on Red Bull Salzburg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 March 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 5W 2D 3L at Red Bull Arena — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Red Bull Salzburg) versus 1.90 (TSV Hartberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Red Bull Salzburg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, TSV Hartberg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Red Bull Salzburg: 5 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for TSV Hartberg, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Red Bull Salzburg and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 62% versus TSV Hartberg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 60% | TSV Hartberg 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.43 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.127 / defence 1.163 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.084 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.169. Data: 42 Red Bull Salzburg games / 42 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 37% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 39%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | TSV Hartberg 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Red Bull Salzburg 60% | TSV Hartberg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 37% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.43 / TSV Hartberg 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.127 / def 1.163 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.084 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
1.47
TSV Hartberg xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Red Bull Salzburg 0 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 37% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg?
Record (6 meetings): Red Bull Salzburg 5W | Draws 1 | TSV Hartberg 0W.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg in?
Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Red Bull Salzburg's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Red Bull Salzburg's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
37%
2.73
25%
4.04
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.90
1.47
TSV Hartberg xG
2.73
37%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
8%
11.91
9%
10.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.47 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Red Bull Salzburg have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 26W 15D 11L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 19W 18D 15L from 52 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-W. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Red Bull Salzburg on 1.79 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 1.96 PPG from 26 outings (15W 6D 5L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 9W 10D 7L from 26 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.29 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Red Bull Salzburg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 26W 15D 11L in their last 52 games (1.79 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 19W 18D 15L in their last 52 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 1.96 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Red Bull Salzburg's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Red Bull Salzburg
2
Draws
1
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 62%, TSV Hartberg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 50% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 35%; TSV Hartberg in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Red Bull Salzburg's games and 50% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Red Bull Salzburg's matches and 50% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Red Bull Salzburg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Red Bull Salzburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg finished level at 0-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.43 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.47 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.13 / defence 1.16 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.08 / defence 0.96, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 37% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 39%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 60%, TSV Hartberg 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Red Bull Salzburg 1.79 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.