FC BW Linz 3-0 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC BW Linz at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC BW Linz host Wolfsberger AC at Hofmann Personal Stadion in Bundesliga (Relegation Group - 28). Kick-off is Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Guide
FC BW Linz — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC BW Linz's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Wolfsberger AC stand at 0W 5D 5L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Wolfsberger AC's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 0D 8L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC BW Linz carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of FC BW Linz's games and 70% of Wolfsberger AC's (from FC BW Linz's last 10 home games and Wolfsberger AC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 9 H2H matches, FC BW Linz have won 3, Wolfsberger AC 4, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Apr 2026, ended FC BW Linz 0–0 Wolfsberger AC — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC BW Linz trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 52% versus Wolfsberger AC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 54% | Wolfsberger AC 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC BW Linz surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Wolfsberger AC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.70 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 1.036 / defence 1.219 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.942 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Wolfsberger AC's defence rating of 1.219 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC BW Linz's projected output up. FC BW Linz's defence rating of 1.219 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wolfsberger AC's projected output up. Data: built from FC BW Linz's last 44 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 44.
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 46% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 29%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.18 | Draw 3.99 | Wolfsberger AC 3.43. FC BW Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.70 / 1.32) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC BW Linz are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC BW Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (FC BW Linz's last 10 home games and Wolfsberger AC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.9 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC BW Linz 60% (last 10 home games) | Wolfsberger AC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 28 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 46% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG FC BW Linz 1.70 / Wolfsberger AC 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 1.036 / def 1.219 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.942 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: FC BW Linz (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Wolfsberger AC xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC FAQs
What time does FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
FC BW Linz 3 - 0 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Group - 28) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 46% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC BW Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC BW Linz's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus FC BW Linz's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC BW Linz's last 44 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC BW Linz Win
46%
2.18
25%
3.99
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
3.02
1.32
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
5%
18.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.32 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, FC BW Linz have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 17W 9D 33L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 23W 15D 21L from 59 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC BW Linz on 1.02 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC BW Linz have posted 1.38 PPG from their last 29 home games (13W 1D 15L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 11W 6D 12L from their last 29 away games — 1.34 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.58 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 63%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
FC BW Linz (Home) vs Wolfsberger AC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC BW Linz
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC Form FAQs
What form are FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 17W 9D 33L in their last 59 games (1.02 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 23W 15D 21L in their last 59 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
FC BW Linz's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.38 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from April 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 21 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Aug 2025, when Wolfsberger AC won Wolfsberger AC 3-0 FC BW Linz.
FC BW Linz's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC BW Linz
2
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC BW Linz have won 4, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2026: FC BW Linz 3-0 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 52%, Wolfsberger AC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (FC BW Linz) and 59% (Wolfsberger AC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of FC BW Linz's games and 62% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of FC BW Linz's matches and 59% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 86% of Wolfsberger AC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC BW Linz run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC BW Linz beat Wolfsberger AC 3-0 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Relegation Group - 28, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.70 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.32 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC BW Linz beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wolfsberger AC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 1.04 / defence 1.22 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.94 / defence 1.22, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 46% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 29%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 54%, Wolfsberger AC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 1.02 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC BW Linz win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.