FC BW Linz 3-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC BW Linz at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Hofmann Personal Stadion plays host to FC BW Linz versus SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 29. Kick-off: Friday 24 April 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC BW Linz have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC BW Linz have posted 4W 1D 5L at Hofmann Personal Stadion — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SCR Altach (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SCR Altach have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for FC BW Linz, 1.40 for SCR Altach — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for FC BW Linz, 3 for SCR Altach and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 1–3 with SCR Altach winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FC BW Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 52% versus SCR Altach 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 55% | SCR Altach 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.40 xG and SCR Altach 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 1.035 / defence 1.215 | SCR Altach attack 0.811 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 FC BW Linz games / 44 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 42% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 30%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | SCR Altach 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC BW Linz at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC BW Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC BW Linz 60% | SCR Altach 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 29 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 42% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG FC BW Linz 1.40 / SCR Altach 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 1.035 / def 1.215 | SCR Altach attack 0.811 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: FC BW Linz (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.13
SCR Altach xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach kick off?
FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 24 April 2026 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
FC BW Linz 3 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach part of?
FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach is a Relegation Group - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 42% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC BW Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC BW Linz and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and SCR Altach?
Record (9 meetings): FC BW Linz 3W | Draws 3 | SCR Altach 3W.
What form are FC BW Linz and SCR Altach in?
FC BW Linz (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC BW Linz's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against SCR Altach's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.81x) against FC BW Linz's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC BW Linz Win
42%
2.36
28%
3.58
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.53
1.13
SCR Altach xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
7%
13.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.13 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, FC BW Linz have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 18W 9D 33L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
SCR Altach's form line: 14W 22D 24L from 60 games, 1.07 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for FC BW Linz against 1.07 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC BW Linz have posted 1.43 PPG from 30 outings (14W 1D 15L).
On the road, SCR Altach have gone 5W 8D 17L from 30 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC BW Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 1.00 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Current Season
SCR Altach
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC BW Linz and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 18W 9D 33L in their last 60 games (1.05 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 14W 22D 24L in their last 60 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or SCR Altach away?
FC BW Linz's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.43 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won 3-0 on 24 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC BW Linz have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC BW Linz
3
Draws
3
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, FC BW Linz have won 4, SCR Altach have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when FC BW Linz 3-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and SCR Altach?
FC BW Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 50%, SCR Altach 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (FC BW Linz) and 47% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC BW Linz play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 40% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of FC BW Linz's recent games and 47% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC BW Linz and SCR Altach tend to score early?
FC BW Linz have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC BW Linz run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC BW Linz beat SCR Altach 3-0 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Relegation Group - 29, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.40 xG and SCR Altach 1.13 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC BW Linz beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SCR Altach landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 1.03 / defence 1.22 against SCR Altach attack 0.81 / defence 1.00, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 42% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 30%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 55%, SCR Altach 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
SCR Altach's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 1.05 PPG, SCR Altach 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC BW Linz win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.