🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Ried at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs Grazer AK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Innviertel Arena plays host to Ried versus Grazer AK in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 28. Kick-off: Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 19:30 UTC.

Current Form

Ried's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ried at Innviertel Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ried are significantly better at Innviertel Arena than their overall form suggests.

Grazer AK have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Grazer AK's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Grazer AK are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Ried 0W, Grazer AK 1W, 2D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Ried — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Grazer AK — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 56% versus Grazer AK 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 48% | Grazer AK 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.20 xG and Grazer AK 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.796 / defence 1.081 | Grazer AK attack 0.838 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Ried's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Ried games / 44 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ried 39% | Draw 30% | Grazer AK 31%. Fair-value odds: Ried 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Grazer AK 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ried are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Grazer AK (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ried if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ried 40% | Grazer AK 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights