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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

SCR Altach and WSG Wattens meet at Cashpoint-Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 28. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

SCR Altach have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Cashpoint-Arena, SCR Altach have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

WSG Wattens (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, WSG Wattens have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — SCR Altach lead 3W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 49% versus WSG Wattens 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 41% | WSG Wattens 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.38 xG and WSG Wattens 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 1.009 / defence 0.904 | WSG Wattens attack 1.062 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 SCR Altach games / 44 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 43% | Draw 28% | WSG Wattens 29%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | WSG Wattens 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SCR Altach at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 70% | WSG Wattens 50% BTTS from recent games.

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