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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 48%, yet in-form FC BW Linz provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Relegation Group - 27 sees FC BW Linz travel to Lavanttal-Arena to take on Wolfsberger AC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Lavanttal-Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Wolfsberger AC are significantly better at Lavanttal-Arena than their overall form suggests.
FC BW Linz — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FC BW Linz have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC BW Linz — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Wolfsberger AC, 3 for FC BW Linz and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with FC BW Linz winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
FC BW Linz trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 64% versus FC BW Linz 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 60% | FC BW Linz 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.50 xG and FC BW Linz 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.082 / defence 1.108 | FC BW Linz attack 0.790 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 Wolfsberger AC games / 44 FC BW Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 48% | Draw 27% | FC BW Linz 25%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | FC BW Linz 4.00. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolfsberger AC at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC BW Linz (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Wolfsberger AC 70% | FC BW Linz 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 27 | Venue: Lavanttal-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (8 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 4W | Draws 1 | FC BW Linz 3W • Goals trend: 2.12 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Wolfsberger AC 10 – 7 FC BW Linz • H2H markets: BTTS 38% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Wolfsberger AC 50% / Draw 12% / FC BW Linz 38% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 48% / draw 27% / away 25% • Goals: H2H average 2.12/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.50 (46% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 38%, Poisson probability 50% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-D • FC BW Linz (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W • Wolfsberger AC home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | CS 3 • FC BW Linz away split: 0.40 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | CS 1 • Form edge: FC BW Linz lead by 0.70 PPG (1.10 vs 0.40) • xG vs form (Wolfsberger AC): Poisson xG of 1.50 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (FC BW Linz): Poisson projects 1.00 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.60 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~1.6 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.50 (46% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~60% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 50% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours FC BW Linz on PPG but Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC higher (48% vs 25% for FC BW Linz) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 48% | Draw 27% | FC BW Linz 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.50 / FC BW Linz 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.082 / def 1.108 | FC BW Linz attack 0.790 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
FC BW Linz xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Lavanttal-Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz?
Wolfsberger AC 0 - 0 FC BW Linz.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal-Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz is a Relegation Group - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 48% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and FC BW Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and FC BW Linz?
• Record (8 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 4W | Draws 1 | FC BW Linz 3W • Goals trend: 2.12 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Wolfsberger AC 10 – 7 FC BW Linz • H2H markets: BTTS 38% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Wolfsberger AC 50% / Draw 12% / FC BW Linz 38% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 48% / draw 27% / away 25% • Goals: H2H average 2.12/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.50 (46% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 38%, Poisson probability 50% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Wolfsberger AC and FC BW Linz in?
• Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-D • FC BW Linz (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W • Wolfsberger AC home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | CS 3 • FC BW Linz away split: 0.40 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | CS 1 • Form edge: FC BW Linz lead by 0.70 PPG (1.10 vs 0.40) • xG vs form (Wolfsberger AC): Poisson xG of 1.50 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (FC BW Linz): Poisson projects 1.00 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.60 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~1.6 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.50 (46% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~60% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 50% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours FC BW Linz on PPG but Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC higher (48% vs 25% for FC BW Linz) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture