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Poisson rates FC BW Linz at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.

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Match Analysis

FC BW Linz host Wolfsberger AC at Hofmann Personal Stadion in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form Guide

FC BW Linz — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC BW Linz's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Hofmann Personal Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Wolfsberger AC's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

FC BW Linz carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC BW Linz register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Wolfsberger AC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for FC BW Linz, 4 for Wolfsberger AC and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

FC BW Linz trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Wolfsberger AC trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 52% versus Wolfsberger AC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 54% | Wolfsberger AC 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.70 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 1.036 / defence 1.219 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.942 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Wolfsberger AC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing FC BW Linz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 FC BW Linz games / 44 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 46% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 29%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Wolfsberger AC 3.45. FC BW Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, FC BW Linz are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC BW Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC BW Linz 60% | Wolfsberger AC 70% BTTS from recent games.

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