Sturm Graz 0-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Vienna make the trip to Merkur Arena to face Sturm Graz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 October 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Sturm Graz (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's home record at Merkur Arena: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Austria Vienna have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Sturm Graz. A 1.20 PPG lead over Austria Vienna (2.40 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sturm Graz, 0 for Austria Vienna and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 3–0 with Sturm Graz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sturm Graz — key trading statistics (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 58% versus Austria Vienna 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 54% | Austria Vienna 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.58 xG and Austria Vienna 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.228 / defence 0.759 | Austria Vienna attack 0.879 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.333. Sturm Graz's defence rating of 0.759 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Sturm Graz games / 33 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 51% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 19%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Austria Vienna 5.26. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Sturm Graz 50% | Austria Vienna 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 51% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Sturm Graz 1.58 / Austria Vienna 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.228 / def 0.759 | Austria Vienna attack 0.879 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Austria Vienna xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Sturm Graz 0 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna part of?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 51% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
Record (1 meetings): Sturm Graz 1W | Draws 0 | Austria Vienna 0W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Austria Vienna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.23x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (0.88x) against Sturm Graz's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
51%
1.95
30%
3.33
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.47
0.89
Austria Vienna xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
4%
25.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.89 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 28W 9D 6L from 43 games, a 2.16 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 15L across 43 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Austria Vienna heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 16W 3D 3L from 22 games — 2.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Vienna's away record stands at 6W 7D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.67 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna in 60%.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 28W 9D 6L in their last 43 games (2.16 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 15W 13D 15L in their last 43 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Austria Vienna away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.32 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 0-3 on 30 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
5
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 54%, Austria Vienna 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Sturm Graz and 64% for Austria Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Sturm Graz's games and 68% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Sturm Graz's matches and 64% of Austria Vienna's.
Do Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Vienna defy the odds to beat Sturm Graz 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Sturm Graz 0-1 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.58 xG and Austria Vienna 0.89 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sturm Graz fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.23 / defence 0.76 against Austria Vienna attack 0.88 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 51% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 19%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Austria Vienna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 54%, Austria Vienna 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with Austria Vienna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.