Al Khaleej Saihat 0-0 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Shabab make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Shabab's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Khaleej Saihat lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with Al Khaleej Saihat winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 43% versus Al Shabab 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 45% | Al Shabab 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.21 xG and Al Shabab 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.929 / defence 0.978 | Al Shabab attack 0.770 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.485. Data: 51 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 51 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 37% | Draw 31% | Al Shabab 32%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Al Shabab 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Khaleej Saihat at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Khaleej Saihat 60% | Al Shabab 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 37% | Draw 31% | Al Shabab 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.21 / Al Shabab 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.929 / def 0.978 | Al Shabab attack 0.770 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Al Shabab xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab?
Al Khaleej Saihat 0 - 0 Al Shabab.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 37% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab?
Record (3 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 1W | Draws 0 | Al Shabab 2W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Al Shabab's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (0.77x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
37%
2.73
31%
3.18
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.33
1.12
Al Shabab xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
10%
10.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.12 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 51 games, going 15W 9D 27L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.57 PPG from 51 outings (23W 11D 17L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 9W 5D 11L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.20 points per game from 25 outings (8W 6D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.55 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 15W 9D 27L in their last 51 games (1.06 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 23W 11D 17L in their last 51 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.28 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Al Khaleej Saihat or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Khaleej Saihat have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 4-0 on 15 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
2
Draws
4
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, Al Shabab have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-0 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 52%, Al Shabab 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 60% (Al Shabab). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Al Khaleej Saihat's games and 68% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 60% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Khaleej Saihat's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.21 xG and Al Shabab 1.12 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al Shabab landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against Al Shabab attack 0.77 / defence 0.87, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 37% | Draw 31% | Al Shabab 32%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 45%, Al Shabab 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Shabab's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.