Al Wehda Club 3-3 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Wehda Club face Al Taawon.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Al Wehda Club host Al Taawon at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 22). Kick-off is Thursday 29 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Wehda Club stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Al Wehda Club have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Al Taawon have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al Taawon's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Wehda Club at 1.30 PPG versus Al Taawon's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Al Wehda Club's games and 60% of Al Taawon's (from Al Wehda Club's last 10 home games and Al Taawon's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Al Wehda Club have won 0, Al Taawon 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Al Wehda Club 1–4 Al Taawon — a Al Taawon win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Al Wehda Club trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Al Taawon trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 51% versus Al Taawon 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 49% | Al Taawon 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.38 xG and Al Taawon 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 1.121 / defence 1.039 | Al Taawon attack 0.997 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.422. Data: built from Al Wehda Club's last 51 games and Al Taawon's last 51.

Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 34% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 38%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 2.93 | Draw 3.61 | Al Taawon 2.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Wehda Club's last 10 home games and Al Taawon's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Wehda Club 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Taawon 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights