Al Okhdood 1-2 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Okhdood at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh encounter.

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Full Analysis

Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium plays host to Al Okhdood versus Al Riyadh in Pro League (matchday 22). Kick-off: Friday 1 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Al Okhdood have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters, Al Okhdood have posted 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Al Riyadh (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Al Riyadh away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Al Okhdood's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Al Riyadh's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Al Okhdood, 0 for Al Riyadh and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2023, ended Al Okhdood 1–0 Al Riyadh — a Al Okhdood win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Al Okhdood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Al Riyadh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 38% versus Al Riyadh 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 43% | Al Riyadh 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.79 xG and Al Riyadh 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.890 / defence 0.926 | Al Riyadh attack 0.681 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.485. Al Riyadh's defence rating of 1.347 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Okhdood's projected output up. Al Riyadh's attack rating of 0.681 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Al Okhdood's last 21 games and Al Riyadh's last 21.

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 56% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 18%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 1.79 | Draw 3.87 | Al Riyadh 5.51. The model has a clear lean to Al Okhdood (56%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Okhdood at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Okhdood's last 10 home games and Al Riyadh's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Okhdood 30% (last 10 home games) | Al Riyadh 60% (last 10 away games).

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