Al Shabab 2-3 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Shabab face Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Al-Nassr travel to Al-Shabab Club Stadium to take on Al Shabab. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 February 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's home record at Al-Shabab Club Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Nassr — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Nassr are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Nassr 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2023, ended 0–4 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Shabab trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al-Nassr trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 52% versus Al-Nassr 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 56% | Al-Nassr 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.27 xG and Al-Nassr 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 0.926 / defence 0.828 | Al-Nassr attack 1.514 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.409. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.514 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Al Shabab games / 50 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 26% | Draw 26% | Al-Nassr 48%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Nassr 2.08. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 50% | Al-Nassr 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 26% | Draw 26% | Al-Nassr 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Al Shabab 1.27 / Al-Nassr 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 0.926 / def 0.828 | Al-Nassr attack 1.514 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Al-Nassr xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Al Shabab 2 - 3 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 26% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Nassr?
Record (5 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Nassr 3W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Nassr in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Shabab's attack rating (0.93) and Al-Nassr's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
26%
3.82
26%
3.86
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.03
1.77
Al-Nassr xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
4%
22.35
13%
7.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.77 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Shabab come into this having played 50 games, going 23W 11D 16L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.32 PPG from 50 outings (36W 8D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Shabab's home form reads 14W 5D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.17 points per game from 24 outings (16W 4D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al Shabab are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.40 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Al-Nassr in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 23W 11D 16L in their last 50 games (1.60 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 36W 8D 6L in their last 50 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.96 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Nassr have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2023, when Al-Nassr won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Shabab
2
Draws
7
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Nassr have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2026, when Al Shabab 2-4 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 38%, Al-Nassr 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al Shabab and 71% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 46% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Shabab's matches and 71% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al Shabab 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Shabab 2-3 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.27 xG and Al-Nassr 1.77 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Nassr outscored their 1.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 0.93 / defence 0.83 against Al-Nassr attack 1.51 / defence 0.93, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 26% | Draw 26% | Al-Nassr 48%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 56%, Al-Nassr 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Shabab (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.