Al Shabab 2-3 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Shabab Club Stadium plays host to Al Shabab versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Thursday 7 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Shabab have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Shabab have posted 4W 3D 3L at Al-Shabab Club Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al Shabab are significantly better at Al-Shabab Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fayha (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Al Shabab, 1.30 for Al-Fayha — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Fayha in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Al Shabab have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 5 meetings, with Al-Fayha managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Al Shabab winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al Shabab and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 52% versus Al-Fayha 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 56% | Al-Fayha 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.55 xG and Al-Fayha 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 0.979 / defence 0.912 | Al-Fayha attack 1.024 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.480. Data: 52 Al Shabab games / 52 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 40% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 32%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Fayha 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 60% | Al-Fayha 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 40% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Al Shabab 1.55 / Al-Fayha 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 0.979 / def 0.912 | Al-Fayha attack 1.024 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.480 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Al-Fayha xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 7 March 2024 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha?
Al Shabab 2 - 3 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 40% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Fayha?
Record (5 meetings): Al Shabab 5W | Draws 0 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Fayha in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Al-Fayha (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Shabab's attack rating (0.98) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (1.02x) against Al Shabab's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
40%
2.53
28%
3.52
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.93
1.38
Al-Fayha xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
10%
10.06
7%
14.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.4 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.38 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 23W 12D 17L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha's form line: 15W 16D 21L from 52 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Al Shabab against 1.17 for Al-Fayha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 1.88 PPG from 25 outings (14W 5D 6L).
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 9W 7D 9L from 25 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Shabab are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.12 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 23W 12D 17L in their last 52 games (1.56 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 15W 16D 21L in their last 52 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.88 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al Shabab
1
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 8, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Al Shabab 1-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Fayha?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 40%, Al-Fayha 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al Shabab) and 60% (Al-Fayha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 68% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Al Shabab's matches and 60% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fayha defy the odds to beat Al Shabab 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Shabab 2-3 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.55 xG and Al-Fayha 1.38 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Fayha outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 0.98 / defence 0.91 against Al-Fayha attack 1.02 / defence 1.08, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 40% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 32%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al-Fayha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 56%, Al-Fayha 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.56 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al Shabab (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.