Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 7W 3D 0L at King Abdullah Sports City — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.10 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Al-Fateh's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1 for Al-Fateh and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 1–5 with Al-Fateh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 48% versus Al-Fateh 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 67% | Al-Fateh 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.25 xG and Al-Fateh 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.870 / defence 0.788 | Al-Fateh attack 0.978 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.481. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 21 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 51 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 37% | Draw 32% | Al-Fateh 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Fateh 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% | Al-Fateh 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 37% | Draw 32% | Al-Fateh 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.25 / Al-Fateh 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.870 / def 0.788 | Al-Fateh attack 0.978 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.481 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Al-Fateh xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 37% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 1W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.98x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 21/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
37%
2.71
32%
3.17
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.39
1.14
Al-Fateh xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
9%
11.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.14 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 13W 4D 4L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh's form line: 8W 6D 7L from 21 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-D. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.40 PPG from 10 outings (7W 3D 0L).
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.67 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 71%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 13W 4D 4L in their last 21 games (2.05 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 8W 6D 7L in their last 21 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.40 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fateh won 5-1 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Fateh.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%, Al-Fateh 90% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 80% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 70% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 30% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 90% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 80% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh finished level at 1-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.25 xG and Al-Fateh 1.14 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.87 / defence 0.79 against Al-Fateh attack 0.98 / defence 0.97, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 37% | Draw 32% | Al-Fateh 32%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 67%, Al-Fateh 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.