Al Taee 1-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Taee face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Taee host Al-Ahli Jeddah at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Taee — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ahli Jeddah are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Taee register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Al-Ahli Jeddah have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Al Taee's 0 victories.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al Taee trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 45% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 55% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.70 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.008 / defence 1.262 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.415 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.398. Al-Ahli Jeddah have an above-average attack strength of 1.415 — the away xG of 2.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Al Taee games / 20 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 25% | Draw 20% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 4.00 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.20. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.20 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 2.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 79% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 76% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Taee 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 25% | Draw 20% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 76% | xG Al Taee 1.70 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.50 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 1.008 / def 1.262 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.415 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
2.50
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
76%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Taee 1 - 4 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 25% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 55% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (3 meetings): Al Taee 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3W.
What form are Al Taee and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Taee (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Taee's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al Taee's defence, projects 2.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.2%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
25%
3.96
20%
5.00
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
1 – 3
6.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Al Taee xG
Total xG
4.20
2.50
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
3.96
25%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.09
Clean Sheet
8%
12.15
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
2%
48.12
10%
9.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 2.6 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Al Taee and 2.50 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 4.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Taee come into this having played 20 games, going 5W 3D 12L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ahli Jeddah sit at 2.00 PPG from 20 outings (12W 4D 4L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.10 PPG clear of Al Taee — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Taee's home form reads 4W 1D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Al Taee are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken 1.44 points per game from 9 outings (4W 1D 4L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ahli Jeddah's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taee are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.15 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 5W 3D 12L in their last 20 games (0.90 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 12W 4D 4L in their last 20 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al Taee's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.44 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Al Taee or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taee have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ahli Jeddah go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2024, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taee's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Taee
0
Draws
4
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Al Taee 1-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 56%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Al Taee and 89% for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 89% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al Taee's games and 56% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Al Taee's matches and 89% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al Taee and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Al Taee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Taee 1-4 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.70 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.50 xG, a combined 4.20. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 2.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 1.01 / defence 1.26 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.42 / defence 1.15, drawn from 50/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 25% | Draw 20% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 55%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Taee (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.