Al-Fateh 1-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 36%, yet in-form Damac provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Fateh vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Damac travel to Al Fateh Club Stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 February 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fateh — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh at Al Fateh Club Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Damac are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Fateh, 1 for Damac and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Damac in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 56% versus Damac 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 60% | Damac 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.23 xG and Damac 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.879 / defence 0.944 | Damac attack 0.918 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.401. Data: 50 Al-Fateh games / 50 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 36% | Draw 29% | Damac 35%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Damac 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Damac (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fateh 50% | Damac 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 23 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 36% | Draw 29% | Damac 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Fateh 1.23 / Damac 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.879 / def 0.944 | Damac attack 0.918 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Damac xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Damac kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Damac kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 23 February 2024 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Al-Fateh 1 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Damac part of?
Al-Fateh vs Damac is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 36% chance of winning, Damac a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Fateh and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Damac?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Fateh 1W | Draws 3 | Damac 1W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Damac in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Damac (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
36%
2.79
29%
3.46
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.44
1.21
Damac xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.21 for Damac, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh come into this having played 50 games, going 21W 9D 20L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Damac sit at 1.32 PPG from 50 outings (17W 15D 18L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.44 PPG, Damac on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fateh's home form reads 9W 6D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Damac have taken 1.08 points per game from 25 outings (7W 6D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.36 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 21W 9D 20L in their last 50 games (1.44 PPG), while Damac have gone 17W 15D 18L in their last 50 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Damac away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.32 PPG; Damac away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Damac runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when Al-Fateh won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
6
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 3, Damac have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Damac?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 48%, Damac 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al-Fateh) and 48% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 32% of games; Damac in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 52% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 48% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Damac in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh and Damac share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Al-Fateh and Damac drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.23 xG and Damac 1.21 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.88 / defence 0.94 against Damac attack 0.92 / defence 0.95, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 36% | Draw 29% | Damac 35%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 60%, Damac 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Damac's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.44 PPG, Damac 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.