Telstar 1-5 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
711 Stadion plays host to Telstar versus Willem II in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Friday 24 November 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Telstar's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Telstar's home record at 711 Stadion: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Willem II (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Willem II have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Willem II arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Telstar 0W, Willem II 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Telstar half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 49% versus Willem II 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 49% | Willem II 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 0.89 xG and Willem II 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.894 / defence 1.016 | Willem II attack 0.933 / defence 0.635. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.384. Willem II's defence strength of 0.635 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 Telstar games / 53 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 24% | Draw 31% | Willem II 45%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Willem II 2.22. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Telstar 60% | Willem II 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: 711 Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 24% | Draw 31% | Willem II 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Telstar 0.89 / Willem II 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.894 / def 1.016 | Willem II attack 0.933 / def 0.635 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Willem II (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Willem II xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Willem II kick off?
Telstar vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 November 2023 at 711 Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Willem II?
Telstar 1 - 5 Willem II.
Where is Telstar vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at 711 Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Willem II part of?
Telstar vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 24% chance of winning, Willem II a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Telstar and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Willem II?
Record (2 meetings): Telstar 0W | Draws 1 | Willem II 1W.
What form are Telstar and Willem II in?
Telstar (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Willem II (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Telstar's attack at 0.89x the league average against Willem II's defence at 0.64x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.93x) against Telstar's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
24%
4.23
31%
3.19
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Telstar xG
Total xG
2.20
1.31
Willem II xG
4.23
24%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
6%
15.70
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 14.6 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Telstar and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Telstar and 1.31 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Telstar come into this having played 53 games, going 18W 12D 23L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 1.89 PPG from 53 outings (29W 13D 11L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Telstar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Telstar's home form reads 11W 5D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 1.46 points per game from 26 outings (9W 11D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Willem II's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Telstar are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.81 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 60%.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Willem II in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 18W 12D 23L in their last 53 games (1.25 PPG), while Willem II have gone 29W 13D 11L in their last 53 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Willem II away?
Telstar's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.46 PPG; Willem II away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Telstar or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Telstar have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Willem II in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 June 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 1-5 on 24 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Telstar have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Telstar
2
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Telstar have won 1, Willem II have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 1 June 2025, when Willem II 1-3 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Telstar see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 50%, Willem II 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Telstar) and 50% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Willem II in 31%; Telstar have failed to score in 31% of games; Willem II in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Telstar's recent matches and 58% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Telstar vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Telstar's recent games and 50% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Telstar and Willem II tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Willem II in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Willem II run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Telstar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Telstar 1-5 at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 0.89 xG and Willem II 1.31 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Willem II outscored their 1.31 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.89 / defence 1.02 against Willem II attack 0.93 / defence 0.64, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 24% | Draw 31% | Willem II 45%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 49%, Willem II 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Telstar (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.