Telstar 1-5 Willem II – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Willem II at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs Willem II encounter.

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Full Analysis

711 Stadion plays host to Telstar versus Willem II in Eerste Divisie (matchday 16). Kick-off: Friday 24 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time.

Current Form

Telstar's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Telstar's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Willem II (all games): 8W 0D 2L across their last 10 — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Willem II have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Willem II arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Willem II edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2023, ended Telstar 0–0 Willem II — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Telstar half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 49% versus Willem II 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 49% | Willem II 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Telstar surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Willem II have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 58% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 0.89 xG and Willem II 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.894 / defence 1.016 | Willem II attack 0.933 / defence 0.635. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.384. Willem II bring a tight defence (rating 0.635, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Telstar's projected output down. Data: built from Telstar's last 53 games and Willem II's last 53.

Result probabilities: Telstar 24% | Draw 31% | Willem II 45%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 4.23 | Draw 3.19 | Willem II 2.22. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Telstar 60% (last 10 home games) | Willem II 40% (last 10 away games).

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