Jong Utrecht 3-2 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 56%, yet in-form Cambuur provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cambuur make the trip to Stadion Galgenwaard to face Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Friday 22 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Jong Utrecht (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Jong Utrecht's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Cambuur's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cambuur's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Cambuur are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Jong Utrecht — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Cambuur — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 42% versus Cambuur 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 40% | Cambuur 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.76 xG and Cambuur 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.836 / defence 0.733 | Cambuur attack 1.030 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.280. Cambuur's defence rating of 1.231 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Jong Utrecht's projected output up. Jong Utrecht have a tight defence (rating 0.733), which is pulling Cambuur's projected output down. Data: built from Jong Utrecht's last 44 games and Cambuur's last 6.
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 56% | Draw 23% | Cambuur 20%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 1.78 | Draw 4.28 | Cambuur 4.89. The model has a clear lean to Jong Utrecht (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cambuur (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jong Utrecht's last 10 home games and Cambuur's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jong Utrecht 40% (last 10 home games) | Cambuur 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 7 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Friday 22 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 56% | Draw 23% | Cambuur 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Jong Utrecht 1.76 / Cambuur 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.836 / def 0.733 | Cambuur attack 1.030 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Cambuur xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur FAQs
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 22 September 2023 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Jong Utrecht 3 - 2 Cambuur.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 7) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 56% chance of winning, Cambuur a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Cambuur will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (0.84) and Cambuur's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (1.03x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Jong Utrecht's last 44 games and Cambuur's last 6 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.28
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.73
0.97
Cambuur xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
4%
28.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 0.97 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong Utrecht come into this having played 40 games, going 9W 7D 24L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 0.80 PPG from 40 outings (9W 5D 26L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for Jong Utrecht against 0.80 for Cambuur. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Jong Utrecht's home form reads 7W 4D 8L across their last 19 home games, a 1.32 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.85 PPG overall — Jong Utrecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 0.68 points per game from their last 19 away games (3W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.00 scored and 1.95 conceded.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
Cambuur
Early Season
Jong Utrecht (Home) vs Cambuur (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
Cambuur
Early Season
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur Form FAQs
What form are Jong Utrecht and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 9W 7D 24L in their last 40 games (0.85 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 9W 5D 26L in their last 40 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Cambuur away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.32 PPG; Cambuur away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Jong Utrecht and Cambuur, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 8 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Cambuur have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won Jong Utrecht 0-4 Cambuur on 23 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jong Utrecht
0
Draws
4
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Cambuur?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong Utrecht have won 2, Cambuur have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Cambuur last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2026: Cambuur 1-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Utrecht see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 32%, Cambuur 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 21% (Jong Utrecht) and 58% (Cambuur).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 42% of games; Cambuur in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong Utrecht and Cambuur matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 47% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Jong Utrecht and Cambuur matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 58% of Cambuur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and Cambuur matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 47% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 63% of Cambuur's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong Utrecht edge out Cambuur 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat Cambuur 3-2 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.76 xG and Cambuur 0.97 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jong Utrecht beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cambuur outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.84 / defence 0.73 against Cambuur attack 1.03 / defence 1.23, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 56% | Draw 23% | Cambuur 20%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 40%, Cambuur 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.85 PPG, Cambuur 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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