Cambuur 3-4 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Jong PSV U21 travel to Cambuur Stadion to take on Cambuur. The game is scheduled for Friday 29 September 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambuur stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur's home record at Cambuur Stadion: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong PSV U21 have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jong PSV U21 have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cambuur 1.60 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 49% of games.
Jong PSV U21 in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 42% versus Jong PSV U21 66%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 66% | Jong PSV U21 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.48 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.088 / defence 1.056 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.874 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.295. Jong PSV U21 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.364 — this is suppressing Cambuur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Cambuur games / 45 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 65% | Draw 18% | Jong PSV U21 17%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.54 | Draw 5.56 | Jong PSV U21 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (65%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.48 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.68 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cambuur 60% | Jong PSV U21 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 65% | Draw 18% | Jong PSV U21 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 64% | xG Cambuur 2.48 / Jong PSV U21 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.088 / def 1.056 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.874 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Jong PSV U21 xG
64%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 September 2023 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21?
Cambuur 3 - 4 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 65% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 17% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Cambuur and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Jong PSV U21?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cambuur and Jong PSV U21 in?
Cambuur (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cambuur's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.48. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.5%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
65%
1.53
18%
5.61
17%
5.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.68
1.20
Jong PSV U21 xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.61
18%
Draw
5.98
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
8%
11.94
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
1%
71.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.20 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Cambuur have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 9W 5D 27L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 14W 9D 18L from 41 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Jong PSV U21 are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cambuur.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 0.95 PPG from 20 outings (6W 1D 13L).
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 5W 5D 10L from 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambuur are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.51 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 66%.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Early Season
Jong PSV U21
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 9W 5D 27L in their last 41 games (0.78 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 14W 9D 18L in their last 41 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Jong PSV U21's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.95 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2025, when Cambuur won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cambuur's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cambuur
0
Draws
3
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Jong PSV U21?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 3, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 3-2 Cambuur.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 35%, Jong PSV U21 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Cambuur and 60% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur have failed to score in 50% of games; Jong PSV U21 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Jong PSV U21?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Cambuur's recent matches and 65% of Jong PSV U21's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Cambuur's matches and 60% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Cambuur and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong PSV U21 defy the odds to beat Cambuur 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Cambuur 3-4 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.48 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.20 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 1.20 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.09 / defence 1.06 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.87 / defence 1.36, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 65% | Draw 18% | Jong PSV U21 17%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Jong PSV U21 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 66%, Jong PSV U21 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong PSV U21 arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.78. Form held, and they took the win. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.