Dordrecht 0-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dordrecht host Jong AZ at Matchoholic Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dordrecht — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Matchoholic Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong AZ's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jong AZ — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Dordrecht, 2 for Jong AZ and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Dordrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 54% versus Jong AZ 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 61% | Jong AZ 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.13 xG and Jong AZ 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.028 / defence 1.295 | Jong AZ attack 0.904 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.280. Jong AZ bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Dordrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Dordrecht games / 44 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 52% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 27%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.92 | Draw 4.76 | Jong AZ 3.70. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jong AZ (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results.
Poisson projects 3.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 50% | Jong AZ 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Matchoholic Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 52% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 68% | xG Dordrecht 2.13 / Jong AZ 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.028 / def 1.295 | Jong AZ attack 0.904 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Jong AZ xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Jong AZ kick off?
Dordrecht vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 September 2023 at Matchoholic Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Dordrecht 0 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is Dordrecht vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Matchoholic Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Jong AZ part of?
Dordrecht vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 52% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 27% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Dordrecht and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong AZ?
Record (4 meetings): Dordrecht 2W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 2W.
What form are Dordrecht and Jong AZ in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dordrecht's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.13. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
52%
1.92
21%
4.80
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.63
1.50
Jong AZ xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
12%
8.43
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
3%
31.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.50 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dordrecht come into this having played 44 games, going 11W 11D 22L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.39 PPG from 44 outings (17W 10D 17L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 1.00 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dordrecht's home form reads 6W 7D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 0.95 points per game from 21 outings (6W 2D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong AZ's season.
The Goals Picture
Dordrecht are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.61 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Early Season
Jong AZ
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 11W 11D 22L in their last 44 games (1.00 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 17W 10D 17L in their last 44 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Jong AZ away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.19 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dordrecht and Jong AZ runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2024, when Jong AZ won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Dordrecht
3
Draws
4
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 3, Jong AZ have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Jong AZ 1-2 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 52%, Jong AZ 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Dordrecht and 62% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 29% of games; Jong AZ in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 57% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Dordrecht's matches and 62% of Jong AZ's.
Do Dordrecht and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dordrecht's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht and Jong AZ finished level at 0-0 at Matchoholic Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.13 xG and Jong AZ 1.50 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dordrecht fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Jong AZ landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.03 / defence 1.29 against Jong AZ attack 0.90 / defence 1.21, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 52% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 27%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 61%, Jong AZ 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jong AZ's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.00 PPG, Jong AZ 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.