MVV 1-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates MVV at 38%, yet in-form De Graafschap provide a compelling counter-argument — this MVV vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 7 as MVV welcome De Graafschap to De Geusselt. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 September 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, MVV stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. MVV have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
MVV's home record at De Geusselt: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — MVV are significantly better at De Geusselt than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. De Graafschap's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of MVV's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. MVV register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, De Graafschap in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for MVV, 2 for De Graafschap and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2023, ended 1–2 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
MVV in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — MVV 70% and De Graafschap 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (MVV 73% | De Graafschap 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.50 xG and De Graafschap 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.980 / defence 0.984 | De Graafschap attack 1.155 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.293. Data: 43 MVV games / 44 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 38% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 37%. Fair-value odds: MVV 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | De Graafschap 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, MVV are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form De Graafschap (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on MVV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: MVV 70% | De Graafschap 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 38% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG MVV 1.50 / De Graafschap 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.980 / def 0.984 | De Graafschap attack 1.155 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: MVV (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.47
De Graafschap xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs De Graafschap kick off?
MVV vs De Graafschap kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs De Graafschap?
MVV 1 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is MVV vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs De Graafschap part of?
MVV vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 38% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both MVV and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and De Graafschap?
Record (4 meetings): MVV 1W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 2W.
What form are MVV and De Graafschap in?
MVV (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates MVV's attack at 0.98x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
38%
2.60
24%
4.09
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
MVV xG
Total xG
2.97
1.47
De Graafschap xG
2.60
38%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
9%
11.29
8%
12.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are MVV and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for MVV and 1.47 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, MVV have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 20W 6D 18L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for MVV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap's form line: 18W 8D 18L from 44 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: MVV on 1.50 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, MVV have posted 2.14 PPG from 21 outings (14W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — MVV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 7W 5D 9L from 21 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
MVV are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.61 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 20W 6D 18L in their last 44 games (1.50 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 18W 8D 18L in their last 44 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or De Graafschap away?
MVV's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 2.14 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2024, when De Graafschap won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
MVV's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
MVV
4
Draws
4
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 2, De Graafschap have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did MVV and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when MVV 3-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between MVV and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — MVV at 76%, De Graafschap at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for MVV and 71% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of MVV's games and 67% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of MVV's matches and 71% of De Graafschap's.
Do MVV and De Graafschap tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as De Graafschap defy the odds to beat MVV 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat MVV 1-2 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.50 xG and De Graafschap 1.47 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against De Graafschap attack 1.16 / defence 0.91, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 38% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 37%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual De Graafschap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 73%, De Graafschap 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.50 PPG, De Graafschap 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.