ADO Den Haag 1-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ADO Den Haag vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
ADO Den Haag host Telstar at Bingoal Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 7). Kick-off is Friday 22 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
ADO Den Haag — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, ADO Den Haag have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Telstar have recorded 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Telstar away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
ADO Den Haag are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for ADO Den Haag, 0 for Telstar and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Mar 2023, ended ADO Den Haag 3–1 Telstar — a ADO Den Haag win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
ADO Den Haag in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Telstar in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 61% versus Telstar 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 59% | Telstar 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 2.04 xG and Telstar 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.067 / defence 1.190 | Telstar attack 0.735 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.280. Telstar's attack rating of 0.735 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Data: built from ADO Den Haag's last 44 games and Telstar's last 44.
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 59% | Draw 21% | Telstar 20%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 1.71 | Draw 4.74 | Telstar 4.93. The model has a clear lean to ADO Den Haag (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, ADO Den Haag are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (ADO Den Haag's last 10 home games and Telstar's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: ADO Den Haag 80% (last 10 home games) | Telstar 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 7 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 59% | Draw 21% | Telstar 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG ADO Den Haag 2.04 / Telstar 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.067 / def 1.190 | Telstar attack 0.735 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Telstar xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Telstar FAQs
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Telstar kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Telstar kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 22 September 2023 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Telstar?
ADO Den Haag 1 - 1 Telstar.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Telstar part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Telstar is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 7) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 59% chance of winning, Telstar a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Telstar will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will ADO Den Haag vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates ADO Den Haag's attack at 1.07x the league average against Telstar's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Telstar's attack versus ADO Den Haag's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from ADO Den Haag's last 44 games and Telstar's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
59%
1.71
21%
4.74
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.16
1.12
Telstar xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
13%
7.68
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
3%
37.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Telstar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.12 for Telstar, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Telstar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, ADO Den Haag have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 16W 14D 14L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Telstar's form line: 14W 11D 19L from 44 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: ADO Den Haag on 1.41 PPG, Telstar on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, ADO Den Haag have posted 1.29 PPG from their last 21 home games (7W 6D 8L).
On the road, Telstar have gone 6W 5D 10L from their last 21 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 0.98 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
Telstar
Early Season
ADO Den Haag (Home) vs Telstar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
Telstar
Early Season
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Telstar Form FAQs
What form are ADO Den Haag and Telstar in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 16W 14D 14L in their last 44 games (1.41 PPG), while Telstar have gone 14W 11D 19L in their last 44 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Telstar away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.29 PPG; Telstar away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
ADO Den Haag's record when hosting Telstar specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ADO Den Haag
5
Draws
3
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Telstar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Telstar?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, ADO Den Haag have won 2, Telstar have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Telstar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Telstar 2-2 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Telstar?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 67%, Telstar 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for ADO Den Haag and 48% for Telstar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar in 33%; Telstar in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Telstar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in ADO Den Haag and Telstar matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of ADO Den Haag's recent matches and 43% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are ADO Den Haag and Telstar matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 48% of Telstar's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Telstar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of ADO Den Haag's recent matches and 62% of Telstar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ADO Den Haag and Telstar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 7, as ADO Den Haag and Telstar drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 2.04 xG and Telstar 1.12 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. ADO Den Haag fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.07 / defence 1.19 against Telstar attack 0.73 / defence 1.11, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 59% | Draw 21% | Telstar 20%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 59%, Telstar 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Telstar's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 1.41 PPG, Telstar 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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