Cambuur 1-0 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 6 as Cambuur welcome Willem II to Cambuur Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 September 2023 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Cambuur — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Cambuur Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Willem II have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II's away record: 2W 7D 1L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Cambuur) versus 1.40 (Willem II). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cambuur register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Willem II in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cambuur, 0 for Willem II and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 51% of games.
Willem II in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 41% versus Willem II 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 67% | Willem II 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.49 xG and Willem II 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.169 / defence 1.207 | Willem II attack 0.894 / defence 0.759. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.338. Willem II's defence strength of 0.759 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 5 Cambuur games / 43 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 39% | Draw 25% | Willem II 37%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Willem II 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 60% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 39% | Draw 25% | Willem II 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Cambuur 1.49 / Willem II 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.169 / def 1.207 | Willem II attack 0.894 / def 0.759 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Willem II xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Willem II kick off?
Cambuur vs Willem II kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Willem II?
Cambuur 1 - 0 Willem II.
Where is Cambuur vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Willem II part of?
Cambuur vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 39% chance of winning, Willem II a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cambuur and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Willem II?
Record (2 meetings): Cambuur 1W | Draws 1 | Willem II 0W.
What form are Cambuur and Willem II in?
Cambuur (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Willem II (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 1.17x the league average against Willem II's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
39%
2.58
25%
4.07
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.93
1.44
Willem II xG
2.58
39%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
9%
10.92
8%
12.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.44 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cambuur's recent record stands at 8W 5D 26L from 39 games, a 0.74 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 9L across 39 games — 1.74 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Willem II by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cambuur heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 5W 1D 13L from 19 games — 0.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 6W 9D 4L across 19 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambuur are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.82 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Willem II in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 8W 5D 26L in their last 39 games (0.74 PPG), while Willem II have gone 19W 11D 9L in their last 39 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.84 PPG; Willem II away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Cambuur or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Willem II in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cambuur's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cambuur
3
Draws
0
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 3, Willem II have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Willem II 0-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Willem II?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 37%, Willem II 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Cambuur and 58% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur have failed to score in 53% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Cambuur's recent matches and 68% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambuur vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Cambuur's matches and 58% of Willem II's.
Do Cambuur and Willem II tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Willem II in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Willem II 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Willem II 1-0 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.49 xG and Willem II 1.44 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Willem II landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.17 / defence 1.21 against Willem II attack 0.89 / defence 0.76, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 39% | Draw 25% | Willem II 37%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 67%, Willem II 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Willem II's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.74. Form was overturned, with Cambuur winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.