Cambuur 3-1 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cambuur face Den Bosch.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cambuur host Den Bosch at Cambuur Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 5). Kick-off is Saturday 9 September 2023 at 18:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Cambuur — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Cambuur's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Den Bosch have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Den Bosch have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cambuur at 1.00 PPG versus Den Bosch's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 40% versus Den Bosch 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 66% | Den Bosch 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.11 xG and Den Bosch 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.131 / defence 1.280 | Den Bosch attack 0.770 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.280. Den Bosch's attack rating of 0.770 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.26. Cambuur's defence rating of 1.280 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Den Bosch's projected output up. Data: built from Cambuur's last 4 games and Den Bosch's last 42.
Result probabilities: Cambuur 57% | Draw 21% | Den Bosch 22%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.76 | Draw 4.82 | Den Bosch 4.48. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.11 / 1.26) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cambuur's last 10 home games and Den Bosch's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Cambuur 60% (last 10 home games) | Den Bosch 20% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 5 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 September 2023 at 18:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 57% | Draw 21% | Den Bosch 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Cambuur 2.11 / Den Bosch 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.131 / def 1.280 | Den Bosch attack 0.770 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Den Bosch xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cambuur vs Den Bosch FAQs
What time does Cambuur vs Den Bosch kick off?
Cambuur vs Den Bosch kicked off at 18:45 UK time on Saturday 9 September 2023 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Den Bosch?
Cambuur 3 - 1 Den Bosch.
Where is Cambuur vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Den Bosch part of?
Cambuur vs Den Bosch is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 5) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 57% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Cambuur and Den Bosch will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cambuur vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cambuur's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.11. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cambuur's last 4 games and Den Bosch's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
57%
1.76
21%
4.82
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.38
1.26
Den Bosch xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.82
21%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
12%
8.28
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
3%
37.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cambuur vs Den Bosch Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.26 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cambuur come into this having played 38 games, going 7W 5D 26L for 0.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Den Bosch sit at 0.92 PPG from 38 outings (10W 5D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambuur on 0.68 PPG, Den Bosch on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cambuur's home form reads 4W 1D 13L across their last 18 home games, a 0.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Den Bosch have taken 0.44 points per game from their last 18 away games (2W 2D 14L). That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Den Bosch's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.21 scored and 2.16 conceded.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
Cambuur (Home) vs Den Bosch (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cambuur
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Cambuur vs Den Bosch Form FAQs
What form are Cambuur and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 7W 5D 26L in their last 38 games (0.68 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 10W 5D 23L in their last 38 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Den Bosch away?
Cambuur's home record (0.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.72 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent was on 10 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cambuur's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cambuur
2
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Cambuur vs Den Bosch H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Den Bosch?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Cambuur have won 3, Den Bosch have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Den Bosch last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 April 2026: Den Bosch 1-1 Cambuur.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 33%, Den Bosch 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Cambuur and 67% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur have failed to score in 56% of games; Den Bosch in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cambuur vs Den Bosch Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cambuur and Den Bosch matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Cambuur's recent matches and 44% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cambuur and Den Bosch matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Cambuur's matches and 67% of Den Bosch's.
Do Cambuur and Den Bosch matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Cambuur's recent matches and 72% of Den Bosch's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambuur cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Den Bosch 3-1 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.11 xG and Den Bosch 1.26 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cambuur beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.13 / defence 1.28 against Den Bosch attack 0.77 / defence 1.13, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 57% | Draw 21% | Den Bosch 22%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 66%, Den Bosch 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 0.68 PPG, Den Bosch 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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