Jong PSV U21 1-3 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jong PSV U21 face De Graafschap.

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Analysis

De Graafschap make the trip to PSV Campus De Herdgang to face Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Friday 15 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time.

Current Form

Jong PSV U21's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Jong PSV U21's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

De Graafschap (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

De Graafschap away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 1.10 for De Graafschap. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, De Graafschap edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Mar 2023, ended Jong PSV U21 2–1 De Graafschap — a Jong PSV U21 win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Jong PSV U21 — key trading statistics (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).

De Graafschap — key trading statistics (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 67% versus De Graafschap 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 64% | De Graafschap 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.58 xG and De Graafschap 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.991 / defence 0.897 | De Graafschap attack 0.987 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.298. Data: built from Jong PSV U21's last 42 games and De Graafschap's last 42.

Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 47% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 28%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.11 | Draw 4.01 | De Graafschap 3.61. Jong PSV U21 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong PSV U21 at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Jong PSV U21's last 10 home games and De Graafschap's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong PSV U21 80% (last 10 home games) | De Graafschap 50% (last 10 away games).

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