Jong Ajax 3-3 Emmen – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jong Ajax face Emmen.

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Analysis & Preview

Emmen travel to Sportpark De Toekomst to take on Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Friday 15 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Jong Ajax stand at 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Jong Ajax have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Emmen have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Emmen's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong Ajax 0.90 PPG, Emmen 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Jong Ajax's last 10 home games and Emmen's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Jong Ajax have won 1, Emmen 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2022, ended Jong Ajax 1–2 Emmen — a Emmen win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Jong Ajax in-play tendencies (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Emmen in-play tendencies (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 76% and Emmen 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 67% | Emmen 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.66 xG and Emmen 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.037 / defence 1.174 | Emmen attack 0.923 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.298. Data: built from Jong Ajax's last 42 games and Emmen's last 4.

Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 44% | Draw 24% | Emmen 33%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 2.30 | Draw 4.20 | Emmen 3.06. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.66 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Jong Ajax are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jong Ajax's last 10 home games and Emmen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong Ajax 80% (last 10 home games) | Emmen 80% (last 10 away games).

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