Jong AZ 0-0 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jong AZ face FC Eindhoven.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven meet at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie (matchday 6). This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time.

Current Form

Jong AZ's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Jong AZ's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

FC Eindhoven have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, FC Eindhoven have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Jong AZ's last 10 home games and FC Eindhoven's last 10 away games) — Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Eindhoven in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Jong AZ, 2 for FC Eindhoven and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Mar 2023, ended Jong AZ 1–1 FC Eindhoven — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

FC Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 62% versus FC Eindhoven 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 57% | FC Eindhoven 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.46 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.029 / defence 0.911 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.936 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.298. Data: built from Jong AZ's last 42 games and FC Eindhoven's last 41.

Result probabilities: Jong AZ 45% | Draw 26% | FC Eindhoven 29%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.21 | Draw 3.83 | FC Eindhoven 3.49. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong AZ if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Jong AZ's last 10 home games and FC Eindhoven's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong AZ 60% (last 10 home games) | FC Eindhoven 60% (last 10 away games).

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