Roda 0-0 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Groningen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Groningen make the trip to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to face Roda in Eerste Divisie (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Sunday 12 November 2023 at 15:45 UK time.
Current Form
Roda's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Roda's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Groningen have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Groningen away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Roda's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Groningen's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Roda's last 10 home games and Groningen's last 10 away games) — Roda have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Groningen in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Roda — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Groningen — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 62% versus Groningen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 53% | Groningen 60%). Note also that Groningen surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Roda recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.12 xG and Groningen 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.192 / defence 0.876 | Groningen attack 0.912 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.338. Data: built from Roda's last 51 games and Groningen's last 13.
Result probabilities: Roda 60% | Draw 22% | Groningen 17%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.65 | Draw 4.51 | Groningen 5.77. The model has a clear lean to Roda (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Roda's last 10 home games and Groningen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Roda 60% (last 10 home games) | Groningen 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Groningen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 14 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 15:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 60% | Draw 22% | Groningen 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Roda 2.12 / Groningen 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.192 / def 0.876 | Groningen attack 0.912 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Roda (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Groningen xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Roda vs Groningen FAQs
What time does Roda vs Groningen kick off?
Roda vs Groningen kicked off at 15:45 UK time on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Groningen?
Roda 0 - 0 Groningen.
Where is Roda vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Groningen part of?
Roda vs Groningen is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 14) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 60% chance of winning, Groningen a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Roda and Groningen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Roda vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Roda's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.91x) against Roda's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from Roda's last 51 games and Groningen's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
60%
1.65
22%
4.51
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Roda xG
Total xG
3.19
1.07
Groningen xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
12%
8.33
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
2%
48.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Roda vs Groningen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Roda and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Roda and 1.07 for Groningen, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Groningen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Roda have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 17W 10D 20L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Groningen's form line: 8W 9D 30L from 47 games, 0.70 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Roda are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.70 PPG from their last 23 home games (12W 3D 8L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 3W 3D 17L from their last 23 away games — 0.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Roda are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.04 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Groningen
Blended
Roda (Home) vs Groningen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Roda
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Roda vs Groningen Form FAQs
What form are Roda and Groningen in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 17W 10D 20L in their last 47 games (1.30 PPG), while Groningen have gone 8W 9D 30L in their last 47 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Groningen away?
Roda's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.70 PPG; Groningen away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Roda and Groningen, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Roda
1
Draws
1
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Roda vs Groningen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Groningen?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Roda have won 0, Groningen have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Roda and Groningen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2024: Groningen 2-0 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Groningen?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 65%, Groningen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Roda and 61% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Roda vs Groningen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Roda and Groningen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Roda's games and 56% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Roda and Groningen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Roda's matches and 61% of Groningen's.
Do Roda and Groningen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Roda's recent matches and 61% of Groningen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Roda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 14, as Roda and Groningen drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 2.12 xG and Groningen 1.07 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Roda fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Groningen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.19 / defence 0.88 against Groningen attack 0.91 / defence 1.12, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 60% | Draw 22% | Groningen 17%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 53%, Groningen 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Groningen's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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