Wuhan Three Towns 0-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tianjin Teda make the trip to Wuhan Sports Center Stadium to face Wuhan Three Towns in Super League (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form
Wuhan Three Towns (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Wuhan Three Towns's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tianjin Teda's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Tianjin Teda's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Wuhan Three Towns. A 0.90 PPG lead over Tianjin Teda (1.90 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 home games and Tianjin Teda's last 10 away games) — Wuhan Three Towns have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Tianjin Teda in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Wuhan Three Towns, 0 for Tianjin Teda and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Jun 2023, ended Wuhan Three Towns 1–1 Tianjin Teda — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Wuhan Three Towns goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 59% versus Tianjin Teda 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 64% | Tianjin Teda 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.35 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.142 / defence 1.003 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.859 / defence 0.768. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.179. Tianjin Teda bring a tight defence (rating 0.768, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Wuhan Three Towns's projected output down. Data: built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 59 games and Tianjin Teda's last 58.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 44% | Draw 29% | Tianjin Teda 28%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 2.27 | Draw 3.51 | Tianjin Teda 3.64. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Three Towns at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Wuhan Three Towns 70% (last 10 home games) | Tianjin Teda 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, matchday 26 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 44% | Draw 29% | Tianjin Teda 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.35 / Tianjin Teda 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.142 / def 1.003 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.859 / def 0.768 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Tianjin Teda xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda FAQs
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Wuhan Three Towns 0 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda is a Super League fixture (matchday 26) (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 44% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Tianjin Teda's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (0.86x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 59 games and Tianjin Teda's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
44%
2.27
29%
3.51
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.37
1.02
Tianjin Teda xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
7%
14.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.02 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wuhan Three Towns's recent record stands at 35W 12D 11L from 58 games, a 2.02 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 22W 20D 16L across 58 games — 1.48 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wuhan Three Towns by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tianjin Teda heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Wuhan Three Towns have managed 16W 6D 6L from their last 28 home games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 10W 8D 10L across their last 28 away games, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.29 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns (Home) vs Tianjin Teda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda Form FAQs
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 35W 12D 11L in their last 58 games (2.02 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 22W 20D 16L in their last 58 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.93 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won Tianjin Teda 4-0 Wuhan Three Towns on 14 Sep 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wuhan Three Towns
3
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Wuhan Three Towns 0-0 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 57%, Tianjin Teda 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 36% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Tianjin Teda in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 50% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent games and 36% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 74% of Tianjin Teda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tianjin Teda defy the odds to beat Wuhan Three Towns 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Wuhan Three Towns 0-1 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.35 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.02 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wuhan Three Towns fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.14 / defence 1.00 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.86 / defence 0.77, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 44% | Draw 29% | Tianjin Teda 28%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Tianjin Teda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 64%, Tianjin Teda 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.48. Form was overturned, with Tianjin Teda winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.