Tianjin Teda 2-2 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Chengdu Better City at TEDA Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 September 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 4W 6D 0L at TEDA Football Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at TEDA Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chengdu Better City — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Chengdu Better City have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Tianjin Teda) versus 1.30 (Chengdu Better City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Tianjin Teda, 1 for Chengdu Better City and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Jun 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Chengdu Better City in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 51% versus Chengdu Better City 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 41% | Chengdu Better City 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.14 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.919 / defence 0.890 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.056 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.181. Data: 59 Tianjin Teda games / 60 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 36% | Draw 30% | Chengdu Better City 35%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Chengdu Better City 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 60% | Chengdu Better City 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Sep 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 36% | Draw 30% | Chengdu Better City 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.14 / Chengdu Better City 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.919 / def 0.890 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.056 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Chengdu Better City xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 29 September 2023 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Tianjin Teda 2 - 2 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 36% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City?
Record (3 meetings): Tianjin Teda 0W | Draws 2 | Chengdu Better City 1W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.92x the league average against Chengdu Better City's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
36%
2.79
30%
3.38
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.25
1.11
Chengdu Better City xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
11%
9.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.11 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tianjin Teda come into this having played 59 games, going 23W 20D 16L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chengdu Better City sit at 1.83 PPG from 59 outings (30W 18D 11L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.51 PPG, Chengdu Better City on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Tianjin Teda's home form reads 12W 12D 5L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, Chengdu Better City have taken 1.72 points per game from 29 outings (14W 8D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.49 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Chengdu Better City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 23W 20D 16L in their last 59 games (1.51 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 30W 18D 11L in their last 59 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.66 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Tianjin Teda
3
Draws
4
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City?
From 9 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 2, Chengdu Better City have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-2 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 52%, Chengdu Better City 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Tianjin Teda) and 34% (Chengdu Better City).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Chengdu Better City in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Chengdu Better City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 41% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 34% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City finished level at 2-2 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.14 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.11 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Tianjin Teda beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chengdu Better City outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.92 / defence 0.89 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.06 / defence 0.82, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 36% | Draw 30% | Chengdu Better City 35%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 41%, Chengdu Better City 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.51 PPG, Chengdu Better City 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.