Changchun Yatai 1-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Changchun's People Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Friday 22 September 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Changchun Yatai (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai's home record at Changchun's People Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Changchun's People Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Beijing Guoan's overall Super League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Beijing Guoan are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Beijing Guoan, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2023, ended 3–4 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Beijing Guoan have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Changchun Yatai half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 56% versus Beijing Guoan 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 52% | Beijing Guoan 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.50 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.067 / defence 1.023 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.137 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.206. Data: 59 Changchun Yatai games / 59 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 40% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 35%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Beijing Guoan 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Changchun Yatai at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beijing Guoan (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 70% | Beijing Guoan 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 40% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.50 / Beijing Guoan 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.067 / def 1.023 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.137 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Beijing Guoan xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 22 September 2023 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 40% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan?
Record (5 meetings): Changchun Yatai 1W | Draws 0 | Beijing Guoan 4W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 1.07x the league average against Beijing Guoan's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (1.14x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
40%
2.52
25%
4.01
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.91
1.40
Beijing Guoan xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
8%
12.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.40 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 20W 18D 21L from 59 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 28W 15D 16L across 59 games — 1.68 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 1.68 for Beijing Guoan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 11W 9D 9L from 29 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 13W 7D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.69 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 20W 18D 21L in their last 59 games (1.32 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 28W 15D 16L in their last 59 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.45 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beijing Guoan go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won 8-1 on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
7
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 2, Beijing Guoan have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Changchun Yatai 0-4 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 59%, Beijing Guoan 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Changchun Yatai) and 66% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Changchun Yatai's games and 62% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Changchun Yatai's matches and 66% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan finished level at 1-1 at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.50 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.40 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.07 / defence 1.02 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.14 / defence 0.90, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 40% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 35%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 52%, Beijing Guoan 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.32 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.