Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Qingdao Jonoon at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun encounter.

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Match Analysis

Qingdao Jonoon host Nantong Zhiyun at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 24 September 2023 at 13:35 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

At home, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Nantong Zhiyun — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Qingdao Jonoon carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Qingdao Jonoon have won 0, Nantong Zhiyun 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 4 Jun 2023, ended Qingdao Jonoon 0–1 Nantong Zhiyun — a Nantong Zhiyun win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Nantong Zhiyun in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 100%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 40% versus Nantong Zhiyun 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Qingdao Jonoon 44% | Nantong Zhiyun 28%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.43 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.953 / defence 1.133 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.840 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.160. Data: built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 25 games and Nantong Zhiyun's last 25.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 44% | Draw 28% | Nantong Zhiyun 28%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.28 | Draw 3.60 | Nantong Zhiyun 3.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Qingdao Jonoon as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Qingdao Jonoon 30% (last 10 home games) | Nantong Zhiyun 60% (last 10 away games).

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