Shandong Luneng 2-1 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shandong Luneng face Wuhan Three Towns.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Shandong Luneng welcome Wuhan Three Towns to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Friday 29 September 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shandong Luneng stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Shandong Luneng have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Wuhan Three Towns have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shandong Luneng 2.00 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Shandong Luneng have won 0, Wuhan Three Towns 0, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Jun 2023, ended Shandong Luneng 1–1 Wuhan Three Towns — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Shandong Luneng trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Wuhan Three Towns trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 48% versus Wuhan Three Towns 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 60% | Wuhan Three Towns 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.99 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.548 / defence 0.754 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.186 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.181. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack rating of 1.548 — their 1.99 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Shandong Luneng have a tight defence (rating 0.754), which is pulling Wuhan Three Towns's projected output down. Data: built from Shandong Luneng's last 60 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 60.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 59% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 19%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.71 | Draw 4.54 | Wuhan Three Towns 5.18. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shandong Luneng's last 10 home games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shandong Luneng 40% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Three Towns 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, matchday 27 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 September 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 59% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Shandong Luneng 1.99 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.548 / def 0.754 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.186 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Wuhan Three Towns xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Three Towns FAQs
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Friday 29 September 2023 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Shandong Luneng 2 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Super League fixture (matchday 27) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 59% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Three Towns will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shandong Luneng's attack at 1.55x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shandong Luneng's last 60 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
59%
1.71
22%
4.54
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.04
1.06
Wuhan Three Towns xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
14%
7.28
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
3%
37.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Three Towns Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.06 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shandong Luneng's recent record stands at 38W 12D 10L from 60 games, a 2.10 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Wuhan Three Towns, meanwhile, have gone 36W 12D 12L across 60 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shandong Luneng on 2.10 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shandong Luneng have managed 24W 3D 2L from their last 29 home games — 2.59 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.10 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record stands at 18W 6D 5L across their last 29 away games, a 2.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 2.22 scored and 0.95 conceded. Shandong Luneng's scoring rate against Wuhan Three Towns's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Wuhan Three Towns in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Shandong Luneng (Home) vs Wuhan Three Towns (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Three Towns Form FAQs
What form are Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 38W 12D 10L in their last 60 games (2.10 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 36W 12D 12L in their last 60 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.59 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Nov 2025, when Shandong Luneng won Wuhan Three Towns 1-5 Shandong Luneng.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shandong Luneng
5
Draws
0
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Three Towns H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Three Towns?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shandong Luneng have won 5, Wuhan Three Towns have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Wuhan Three Towns 3-5 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Three Towns?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 38%, Wuhan Three Towns 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Shandong Luneng and 62% for Wuhan Three Towns. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Wuhan Three Towns in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Three Towns Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Three Towns matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 59% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Three Towns matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 62% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Three Towns matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 83% of Wuhan Three Towns's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shandong Luneng edge out Wuhan Three Towns 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Wuhan Three Towns 2-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.99 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.06 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.55 / defence 0.75 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.19 / defence 0.85, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 59% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 19%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 60%, Wuhan Three Towns 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shandong Luneng 2.10 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shandong Luneng win broke the near-deadlock. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.