Nantong Zhiyun 1-1 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium plays host to Nantong Zhiyun versus Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 16 July 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nantong Zhiyun have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantong Zhiyun's home record at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 2W 3D 3L from 8 Super League appearances (1.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Shandong Luneng's overall Super League record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Shandong Luneng arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Nantong Zhiyun 0W, Shandong Luneng 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Nantong Zhiyun — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Shandong Luneng — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantong Zhiyun 56% versus Shandong Luneng 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nantong Zhiyun 31% | Shandong Luneng 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 0.82 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.666 / defence 1.234 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.043 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.226. Nantong Zhiyun's attack strength of 0.666 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Nantong Zhiyun games / 50 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 18% | Draw 28% | Shandong Luneng 54%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 5.56 | Draw 3.57 | Shandong Luneng 1.85. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nantong Zhiyun 50% | Shandong Luneng 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 18% | Draw 28% | Shandong Luneng 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Nantong Zhiyun 0.82 / Shandong Luneng 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.666 / def 1.234 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.043 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Shandong Luneng xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng?
Nantong Zhiyun 1 - 1 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 18% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 54% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Shandong Luneng?
Record (1 meetings): Nantong Zhiyun 0W | Draws 1 | Shandong Luneng 0W.
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Shandong Luneng in?
Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nantong Zhiyun's attack at 0.67x the league average against Shandong Luneng's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (1.04x) against Nantong Zhiyun's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 16/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-2 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
18%
5.59
28%
3.55
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
2.40
1.58
Shandong Luneng xG
5.59
18%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
4%
27.08
24%
4.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 14.4 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 1.58 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nantong Zhiyun come into this having played 16 games, going 2W 6D 8L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Nantong Zhiyun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shandong Luneng sit at 1.75 PPG from 16 outings (7W 7D 2L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Nantong Zhiyun — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Nantong Zhiyun's home form reads 2W 3D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Shandong Luneng have taken 1.38 points per game from 8 outings (2W 5D 1L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nantong Zhiyun are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 1.62 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Nantong Zhiyun have gone 2W 6D 8L in their last 16 games (0.75 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 7W 7D 2L in their last 16 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantong Zhiyun at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantong Zhiyun at home: 1.12 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Nantong Zhiyun or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantong Zhiyun have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shandong Luneng go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nantong Zhiyun
2
Draws
2
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Shandong Luneng?
From 4 meetings on record, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, Shandong Luneng have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2024, when Nantong Zhiyun 0-2 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantong Zhiyun 50%, Shandong Luneng 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Nantong Zhiyun) and 38% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantong Zhiyun play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Nantong Zhiyun's games and 62% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent games and 38% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantong Zhiyun and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Nantong Zhiyun have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nantong Zhiyun and Shandong Luneng share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Nantong Zhiyun and Shandong Luneng drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 0.82 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.58 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.67 / defence 1.23 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.04 / defence 0.83, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 18% | Draw 28% | Shandong Luneng 54%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantong Zhiyun 31%, Shandong Luneng 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.