Al-Nassr 4-3 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Awal Park at King Saud University plays host to Al-Nassr versus Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Friday 22 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Nassr's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr at Al Awal Park at King Saud University this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 2.50 PPG across 6 Pro League outings this season: 5W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.17 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.20 vs 2.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Nassr, 0 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 50% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 83% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.65 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.232 / defence 0.841 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.934 / defence 1.453. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.454. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.453 — this is suppressing Al-Nassr's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Al-Nassr games / 6 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 70% | Draw 16% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.43 | Draw 6.25 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (70%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.65 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 70% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 70% | Draw 16% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Nassr 2.65 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.232 / def 0.841 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.934 / def 1.453 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.454 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.65
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
63%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 September 2023 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Nassr 4 - 3 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 70% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 14% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Nassr 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 5W-0D-1L in 6 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.17 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.23x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 2.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (0.93x) against Al-Nassr's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.0%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
70%
1.44
16%
6.12
14%
7.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.65
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.79
1.14
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
1.44
70%
Home win
6.12
16%
Draw
7.08
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
7%
14.18
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
1%
100.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 2.65 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.14 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 6 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 4W 0D 2L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 5W 0D 1L from 6 games, 2.50 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Nassr.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Nassr are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.17 scored and 1.50 conceded. Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking output running into Al-Nassr's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 4W 0D 2L in their last 6 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 5W 0D 1L in their last 6 (2.50 PPG).
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 5, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Al-Nassr 2-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 83% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 50%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Al-Nassr and 67% for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Nassr's games and 67% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Al-Nassr's matches and 67% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-3 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.65 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.14 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.23 / defence 0.84 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.93 / defence 1.45, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 70% | Draw 16% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 14%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 83%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 2.00. Form was overturned, with Al-Nassr winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Nassr scored 4 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah scored 3 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.