Al Taee 1-2 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Taee face Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Taee host Al-Nassr at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Taee — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Taee have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taee's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al Taee are significantly better at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Nassr — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Al Taee have won 1, Al-Nassr 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Taee trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Al-Nassr trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 49% versus Al-Nassr 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 57% | Al-Nassr 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 0.90 xG and Al-Nassr 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 0.762 / defence 0.973 | Al-Nassr attack 1.499 / defence 0.768. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.471. Al Taee's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Nassr's defence strength of 0.768 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.499 — the away xG of 2.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Al Taee games / 37 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 15% | Draw 19% | Al-Nassr 66%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 6.67 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Nassr 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al Taee 40% | Al-Nassr 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 15% | Draw 19% | Al-Nassr 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Taee 0.90 / Al-Nassr 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 0.762 / def 0.973 | Al-Nassr attack 1.499 / def 0.768 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
2.15
Al-Nassr xG
52%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 29 September 2023 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Nassr?
Al Taee 1 - 2 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 15% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 66% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Nassr?
Record (4 meetings): Al Taee 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 3W.
What form are Al Taee and Al-Nassr in?
Al Taee (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Taee's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al Taee's defence, projects 2.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 1-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
15%
6.88
19%
5.15
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Al Taee xG
Total xG
3.04
2.15
Al-Nassr xG
6.88
15%
Home win
5.15
19%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
12%
8.56
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
2%
58.91
27%
3.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Al Taee and 2.15 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Taee come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 5D 20L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al Taee, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.22 PPG from 37 outings (25W 7D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.11 PPG clear of Al Taee — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Taee's home form reads 9W 1D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Al Taee are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.06 points per game from 18 outings (11W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Taee are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.30 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Early Season
Al-Nassr
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 12W 5D 20L in their last 37 games (1.11 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 25W 7D 5L in their last 37 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.56 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Al Taee or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taee have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taee and Al-Nassr runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2024, when Al-Nassr won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taee's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Taee
0
Draws
5
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Nassr?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 1, Al-Nassr have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Al-Nassr 5-1 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 39%, Al-Nassr 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al Taee) and 61% (Al-Nassr). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taee keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Al Taee's recent matches and 33% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taee vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al Taee's matches and 61% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al Taee and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al Taee 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Taee 1-2 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 0.90 xG and Al-Nassr 2.15 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 0.76 / defence 0.97 against Al-Nassr attack 1.50 / defence 0.77, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 15% | Draw 19% | Al-Nassr 66%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 57%, Al-Nassr 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.