Al Shabab 4-1 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Shabab face Al-Hazm.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Hazm travel to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Shabab in Pro League (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Thursday 21 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Shabab stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Shabab's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al Shabab are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al-Hazm — last 6 games: 0W 3D 3L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings (17%). Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Hazm's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 1L across their last 3 road games (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Shabab 0.80 PPG, Al-Hazm 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Al Shabab, 0 for Al-Hazm and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Feb 2022, ended Al Shabab 2–1 Al-Hazm — a Al Shabab win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Shabab trading profile (last 6 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Al-Hazm trading profile (last 6 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Shabab 67% and Al-Hazm 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 50% | Al-Hazm 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.36 xG and Al-Hazm 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 0.872 / defence 1.064 | Al-Hazm attack 0.698 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.448. Al-Hazm's attack rating of 0.698 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Data: built from Al Shabab's last 36 games and Al-Hazm's last 6.
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.31 | Draw 3.69 | Al-Hazm 3.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Shabab 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Hazm 67% (last 3 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, matchday 7 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Al Shabab 1.36 / Al-Hazm 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 0.872 / def 1.064 | Al-Hazm attack 0.698 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Al-Hazm xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm FAQs
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Thursday 21 September 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm?
Al Shabab 4 - 1 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm is a Pro League fixture (matchday 7) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 43% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Hazm will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Shabab's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Al-Hazm's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Shabab's last 36 games and Al-Hazm's last 6 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.69
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.44
1.07
Al-Hazm xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
8%
13.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.07 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Shabab's recent record stands at 1W 2D 3L from 6 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 3L across 6 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Shabab on 0.83 PPG, Al-Hazm on 0.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Shabab have managed 0W 2D 1L from their last 3 home games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 0W 2D 1L across their last 3 away games, a 0.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al Shabab are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.67 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 67%.
Last 6 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al Shabab (Home) vs Al-Hazm (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Shabab
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm Form FAQs
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al Shabab's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 0.67 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Jan 2026, when Al Shabab won Al-Hazm 0-4 Al Shabab.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Al Shabab
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Hazm?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Shabab have won 6, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Hazm last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Al-Hazm 1-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Hazm?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Shabab at 100%, Al-Hazm at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al Shabab and 33% for Al-Hazm.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 33%; Al-Hazm in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Shabab and Al-Hazm matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al Shabab's games and 67% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Shabab and Al-Hazm matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al Shabab's recent games and 33% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Hazm matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 67% of Al-Hazm's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Shabab run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Hazm 4-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.36 xG and Al-Hazm 1.07 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Al-Hazm attack 0.70 / defence 1.07, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 30%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 50%, Al-Hazm 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 0.83 PPG, Al-Hazm 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Shabab win broke the near-deadlock. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.