Chaves 0-1 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Famalicao at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chaves vs Famalicao encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 33 as Chaves welcome Famalicao to Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Chaves have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Chaves have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Famalicao — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Famalicao's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Famalicao — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Chaves, 1 for Famalicao and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chaves trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Famalicao trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 53% versus Famalicao 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chaves 48% | Famalicao 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.18 xG and Famalicao 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.842 / defence 1.478 | Famalicao attack 0.888 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.276. Data: 66 Chaves games / 66 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 27% | Draw 25% | Famalicao 49%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Famalicao 2.04. Famalicao hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Famalicao as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Famalicao offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chaves 70% | Famalicao 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 27% | Draw 25% | Famalicao 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Chaves 1.18 / Famalicao 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.842 / def 1.478 | Famalicao attack 0.888 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Famalicao xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs Famalicao kick off?
Chaves vs Famalicao kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Famalicao?
Chaves 0 - 1 Famalicao.
Where is Chaves vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Famalicao part of?
Chaves vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 27% chance of winning, Famalicao a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Chaves and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Famalicao?
Record (3 meetings): Chaves 1W | Draws 1 | Famalicao 1W.
What form are Chaves and Famalicao in?
Chaves (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Famalicao (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chaves's attack at 0.84x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Famalicao's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
27%
3.76
25%
4.06
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Chaves xG
Total xG
2.85
1.68
Famalicao xG
3.76
27%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
5%
20.09
15%
6.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Chaves and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Chaves and 1.68 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chaves's recent record stands at 17W 18D 31L from 66 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Famalicao, meanwhile, have gone 22W 17D 27L across 66 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chaves on 1.05 PPG, Famalicao on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Chaves have managed 9W 9D 15L from 33 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Famalicao's away record stands at 7W 10D 16L across 33 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Chaves are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.12 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Current Season
Famalicao
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 17W 18D 31L in their last 66 games (1.05 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 22W 17D 27L in their last 66 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Famalicao away?
Chaves's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.09 PPG; Famalicao away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Chaves's record when hosting Famalicao specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Chaves
1
Draws
2
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Famalicao?
From 4 meetings on record, Chaves have won 1, Famalicao have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Chaves 0-1 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 67%, Famalicao 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Chaves) and 46% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Famalicao in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play Famalicao?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Chaves's games and 52% of Famalicao's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chaves vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Chaves's recent games and 46% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and Famalicao tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Famalicao edge out Chaves 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Chaves 0-1 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.18 xG and Famalicao 1.68 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chaves fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.84 / defence 1.48 against Famalicao attack 0.89 / defence 0.95, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 27% | Draw 25% | Famalicao 49%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 48%, Famalicao 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Famalicao's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chaves 1.05 PPG, Famalicao 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Chaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Famalicao (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.