GIL Vicente 2-0 Farense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Farense at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIL Vicente vs Farense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIL Vicente host Farense at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, GIL Vicente have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
GIL Vicente at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Farense stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Farense's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — GIL Vicente at 0.80 PPG versus Farense's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for GIL Vicente, 1 for Farense and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2024, ended 0–1 with Farense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
GIL Vicente trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Farense trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 53% versus Farense 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 53% | Farense 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.31 xG and Farense 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.842 / defence 1.109 | Farense attack 1.009 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.278. Data: 66 GIL Vicente games / 32 Farense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 34% | Draw 26% | Farense 40%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Farense 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Farense at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Farense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 50% | Farense 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Farense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 34% | Draw 26% | Farense 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG GIL Vicente 1.31 / Farense 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.842 / def 1.109 | Farense attack 1.009 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Farense (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Farense xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Farense kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Farense kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Farense?
GIL Vicente 2 - 0 Farense.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Farense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Farense part of?
GIL Vicente vs Farense is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Farense?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 34% chance of winning, Farense a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Farense the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Farense?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both GIL Vicente and Farense will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Farense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Farense?
Record (1 meetings): GIL Vicente 0W | Draws 0 | Farense 1W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Farense in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Farense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from GIL Vicente's attack rating (0.84) and Farense's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Farense's attack versus GIL Vicente's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Farense Win
34%
2.91
26%
3.91
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.74
1.43
Farense xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
8%
12.15
11%
9.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Farense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Farense expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.43 for Farense, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Farense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
GIL Vicente's recent record stands at 8W 9D 15L from 32 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Farense, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 15L across 32 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIL Vicente on 1.03 PPG, Farense on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, GIL Vicente have managed 5W 7D 4L from 16 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Farense's away record stands at 4W 3D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Farense are on 1.41 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Current Season
Farense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Farense in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 8W 9D 15L in their last 32 games (1.03 PPG), while Farense have gone 10W 7D 15L in their last 32 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Farense away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.38 PPG; Farense away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIL Vicente and Farense runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
GIL Vicente go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
GIL Vicente's record when hosting Farense specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
GIL Vicente
0
Draws
1
Farense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Farense?
From 4 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 3, Farense have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Farense last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when GIL Vicente 1-0 Farense.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Farense?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 56%, Farense 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (GIL Vicente) and 62% (Farense).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Farense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Farense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of GIL Vicente's games and 69% of Farense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIL Vicente vs Farense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 62% of Farense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Farense tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Farense in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIL Vicente cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Farense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Farense 2-0 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.31 xG and Farense 1.43 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Farense landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.84 / defence 1.11 against Farense attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 34% | Draw 26% | Farense 40%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual GIL Vicente win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 53%, Farense 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Farense's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.03 PPG, Farense 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Farense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.