Famalicao 2-0 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Famalicao face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 32 as Famalicao welcome Benfica to Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Famalicao — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Famalicao have posted 2W 5D 3L at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Benfica's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Benfica's 2.40 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Famalicao's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Benfica have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Famalicao.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2023, ended 0–3 with Benfica winning.
It is worth noting that Benfica have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Famalicao in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Benfica in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 51% versus Benfica 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 49% | Benfica 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.19 xG and Benfica 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.893 / defence 1.066 | Benfica attack 1.231 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.291. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.231 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 65 Famalicao games / 65 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 27% | Draw 24% | Benfica 49%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | Benfica 2.04. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 70% | Benfica 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 27% | Draw 24% | Benfica 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Famalicao 1.19 / Benfica 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.893 / def 1.066 | Benfica attack 1.231 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Benfica (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Benfica xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Benfica kick off?
Famalicao vs Benfica kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Benfica?
Famalicao 2 - 0 Benfica.
Where is Famalicao vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Benfica part of?
Famalicao vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 27% chance of winning, Benfica a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Famalicao and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Benfica?
Record (5 meetings): Famalicao 0W | Draws 1 | Benfica 4W.
What form are Famalicao and Benfica in?
Famalicao (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Benfica (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Famalicao's attack rating (0.89) and Benfica's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Famalicao's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
27%
3.75
24%
4.09
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.88
1.69
Benfica xG
3.75
27%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
18%
5.44
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
5%
20.37
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.69 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Famalicao have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 21W 17D 27L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Benfica's form line: 52W 7D 6L from 65 games, 2.51 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.28 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Famalicao.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Famalicao have posted 1.53 PPG from 32 outings (14W 7D 11L).
On the road, Benfica have gone 23W 4D 5L from 32 away games — 2.28 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Famalicao are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.35 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Current Season
Benfica
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Benfica in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 21W 17D 27L in their last 65 games (1.23 PPG), while Benfica have gone 52W 7D 6L in their last 65 (2.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.53 PPG; Benfica away: 2.28 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Benfica in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Famalicao and Benfica runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2025, when Benfica won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Famalicao's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Famalicao
2
Draws
6
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 2, Benfica have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Famalicao 2-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 50%, Benfica 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Famalicao) and 56% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Benfica in 56%; Famalicao have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Famalicao's recent matches and 34% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Famalicao's recent games and 56% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Benfica tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Benfica in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Famalicao cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Benfica.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Benfica 2-0 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.19 xG and Benfica 1.69 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Famalicao beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Benfica landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.89 / defence 1.07 against Benfica attack 1.23 / defence 0.92, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 27% | Draw 24% | Benfica 49%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Famalicao win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 49%, Benfica 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Benfica's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Famalicao winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Famalicao (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.