Famalicao 1-2 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Famalicao at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Famalicao vs Casa Pia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho plays host to Famalicao versus Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024 at 18:45 UTC.
Form
Famalicao (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Famalicao's home record at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Casa Pia have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Casa Pia have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Famalicao's favour (1.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Famalicao have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Casa Pia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Famalicao 2W, Casa Pia 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 2–0 with Famalicao winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Famalicao — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Casa Pia — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 49% versus Casa Pia 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 48% | Casa Pia 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.78 xG and Casa Pia 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.928 / defence 0.962 | Casa Pia attack 1.256 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.261. Casa Pia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Famalicao's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Casa Pia have an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 Famalicao games / 67 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 44% | Draw 23% | Casa Pia 33%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Casa Pia 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 70% | Casa Pia 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 44% | Draw 23% | Casa Pia 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Famalicao 1.78 / Casa Pia 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.928 / def 0.962 | Casa Pia attack 1.256 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Casa Pia xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Casa Pia kick off?
Famalicao vs Casa Pia kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Famalicao 1 - 2 Casa Pia.
Where is Famalicao vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Casa Pia part of?
Famalicao vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 44% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Famalicao and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Casa Pia?
Record (3 meetings): Famalicao 2W | Draws 0 | Casa Pia 1W.
What form are Famalicao and Casa Pia in?
Famalicao (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Casa Pia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Famalicao's attack at 0.93x the league average against Casa Pia's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (1.26x) against Famalicao's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
44%
2.28
23%
4.38
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Famalicao xG
Total xG
3.30
1.52
Casa Pia xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
10%
10.45
6%
17.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.0 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.52 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Famalicao's recent record stands at 23W 17D 27L from 67 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Casa Pia, meanwhile, have gone 20W 16D 31L across 67 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Famalicao against 1.13 for Casa Pia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 15W 7D 11L from 33 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Casa Pia's away record stands at 11W 6D 16L across 33 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Famalicao are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Current Season
Casa Pia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 23W 17D 27L in their last 67 games (1.28 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 20W 16D 31L in their last 67 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Casa Pia away?
Famalicao's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.58 PPG; Casa Pia away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Famalicao
2
Draws
2
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Casa Pia?
From 8 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 4, Casa Pia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Famalicao 2-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Casa Pia?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 48%, Casa Pia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Famalicao) and 52% (Casa Pia).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 27% of games; Casa Pia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Famalicao's recent matches and 46% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Famalicao's recent games and 52% of Casa Pia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Casa Pia defy the odds to beat Famalicao 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia beat Famalicao 1-2 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.78 xG and Casa Pia 1.52 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against Casa Pia attack 1.26 / defence 1.28, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 44% | Draw 23% | Casa Pia 33%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Casa Pia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 48%, Casa Pia 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Casa Pia's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.28 PPG, Casa Pia 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Casa Pia win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Casa Pia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.