Benfica 5-0 Arouca – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Benfica at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Arouca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 33 as Benfica welcome Arouca to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Benfica — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Benfica's home record at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Benfica are significantly better at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Arouca have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Arouca have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Benfica) versus 1.80 (Arouca). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Benfica: 5 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Arouca, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2024, ended 3–0 with Benfica winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Benfica and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Benfica in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Arouca in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 39% versus Arouca 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 62% | Arouca 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.99 xG and Arouca 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.527 / defence 0.640 | Arouca attack 1.252 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.267. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.527 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Arouca have an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — the away xG of 1.01 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Benfica's defence rating of 0.640 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Benfica games / 66 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 60% | Draw 21% | Arouca 19%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Arouca 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 40% | Arouca 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 60% | Draw 21% | Arouca 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Benfica 1.99 / Arouca 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.527 / def 0.640 | Arouca attack 1.252 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Benfica (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Arouca xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Arouca kick off?
Benfica vs Arouca kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Arouca?
Benfica 5 - 0 Arouca.
Where is Benfica vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Arouca part of?
Benfica vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 60% chance of winning, Arouca a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Benfica and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Arouca?
Record (5 meetings): Benfica 5W | Draws 0 | Arouca 0W.
What form are Benfica and Arouca in?
Benfica (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Arouca (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Benfica's attacking strength (1.53x league average) is weighed against Arouca's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. The same calculation in reverse, Arouca's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
60%
1.66
21%
4.70
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.01
1.01
Arouca xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
14%
7.34
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
3%
39.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Benfica and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Benfica and 1.01 for Arouca, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Arouca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benfica's recent record stands at 52W 7D 7L from 66 games, a 2.47 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 28W 16D 22L across 66 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-W-D-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arouca heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Benfica have managed 29W 3D 1L from 33 games — 2.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 11W 11D 11L across 33 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Benfica are averaging 2.32 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.35 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Current Season
Arouca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Arouca in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 52W 7D 7L in their last 66 games (2.47 PPG), while Arouca have gone 28W 16D 22L in their last 66 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Arouca away?
Benfica's home record (2.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.73 PPG; Arouca away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Benfica or Arouca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Arouca in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benfica and Arouca runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2024, when Benfica won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Arouca specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Benfica
1
Draws
0
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Arouca?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 9, Arouca have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Arouca 1-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Arouca?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 46%, Arouca 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Benfica) and 39% (Arouca).
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Arouca in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Benfica's recent matches and 52% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Benfica's recent games and 39% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benfica and Arouca tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Arouca in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Arouca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Arouca 5-0 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.99 xG and Arouca 1.01 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Arouca landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.53 / defence 0.64 against Arouca attack 1.25 / defence 0.88, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 60% | Draw 21% | Arouca 19%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 62%, Arouca 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Arouca's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.76 average — above their attacking norm. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.