Nantong Zhiyun 0-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan encounter.

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Analysis

Beijing Guoan make the trip to Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Nantong Zhiyun in Super League (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Sunday 13 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.

Current Form

Nantong Zhiyun's record over their last 10 games: 0W 7D 3L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Nantong Zhiyun's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Beijing Guoan have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Beijing Guoan's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Beijing Guoan are 0.80 PPG clear of Nantong Zhiyun over their recent games (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Nantong Zhiyun's last 10 home games and Beijing Guoan's last 10 away games) — Nantong Zhiyun have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Beijing Guoan in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Nantong Zhiyun, 1 for Beijing Guoan and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 15 May 2023, ended Nantong Zhiyun 0–1 Beijing Guoan — a Beijing Guoan win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Nantong Zhiyun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 100%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

Beijing Guoan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nantong Zhiyun 67% and Beijing Guoan 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nantong Zhiyun 29% | Beijing Guoan 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Nantong Zhiyun surrender their half-time lead 100% of the time, while Beijing Guoan have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 0.99 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.653 / defence 1.228 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.887 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.238. Nantong Zhiyun's attack rating of 0.653 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Nantong Zhiyun's defence rating of 1.228 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Beijing Guoan's projected output up. Data: built from Nantong Zhiyun's last 21 games and Beijing Guoan's last 55.

Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 26% | Draw 31% | Beijing Guoan 43%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 3.90 | Draw 3.23 | Beijing Guoan 2.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Nantong Zhiyun 60% (last 10 home games) | Beijing Guoan 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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